Top 10 Keeper Wide Receivers

1. Calvin Johnson- Detroit Lions
Age: 23
Size: 6'5 236
2008 Stats: 78rec.'s 1,331yds 12tds

It's hard to argue that Larry Fitzgerald is not deserving of the number 1 spot- but I am going to anyways. Calvin Johnson is the most physically gifted wide receiver in the NFL; a 6'5 236 freak of nature who ran a 4.35 forty at the NFL rookie combine (in someone else's shoes). What he proved last year is that he is impervious to QB inconsistencies or difficult matchups against defenses that are clearly designed to shut him down- really 78 catches for 1,331 yards and 12 touchdowns is remarkable when playing for an 0-16 team and abysmal QB play.

This is where it gets better. The QB situation, while still unsettled, while produce markedly better than it did last year- whether or not Stafford starts from the get-go. Stafford may take 2-3 years to blossom into the upper-echelon signal caller that the lions envision him to be. However, his built-in skill set- which features an arm built to make all the throws- means that Calvin Johnson will be able to run a full array of routes and expect the QB to be able to get the ball to him- a feeling, I'm sure, he didn't have when Dan Orlovsky was at the helm. Stafford is a QB who, in his early years, will likely lock onto Johnson and look to target him for a considerable amount of his passing attempts. This may result in high interception totals, for Stafford, but it will also result in big numbers for CJ because the combination of Stafford's arm and Johnson's, well, competitive advantage over every cornerback he will face, will surely result in one or two big plays a game.

Again, I am not advocating Calvin Johnson as a better option than Larry Fitzgerald in the scope of the 2009-2010 season- and you may be right if you value Larry Fitzgerald over Calvin Johnson in a keeper league. But if I am going to put all my proverbial "eggs in one basket" and bank on a wide receiver over the next 5 years- I'm putting my money on Megatron.

2. Larry Fitzgerald- Arizona Cardinals
Age: 25
Size: 6'3 217
2008 Stats: 96rec.'s 1,431yds 12tds

Lets see, what is there to like about Fitzgerald... well everything. He has all the physical measurable's which allows him to make catches for big gains- regardless of the situation or degree of difficulty. He has been the most productive and consistent fantasy player- capped off by a 2008 season in which he posted 96 catches for 1431 yards and 12 touchdowns. He is still very young at 25 so it is not unreasonable to expect that he can maintain or even improve his production for at least the next 5-6 years. I do have minor- and I stress minor- concerns, however.

Kurt Warner has been a revelation, the past 2 seasons, as a quaterback who is talented enough to spread the ball around and help his receivers reach there all important numbers- remember not only did Boldin have a pro-bowl season, but Breaston also reached the 1,00 yard mark. However, it is an unknown as to how much Warner has left in the tank and a sudden and drastic decline in production, by Warner, may result in a slight decline in Fitzgerald's production- as they try to reintegrate Leinart or another QB on the fly. As well- unlike Calvin Johnson who has proved he can produce without a comparable second wide receiver- it will be interesting to see if a possible Boldin departure would result in less production.

Regardless, Larry Fitzgerald offers the safest bet to provide top 5 fantasy product and there really is not much evidence to suggest he will not continue to provide your fantasy team with the same pro-bowl caliber production for the next 5+ years.

3. Andre Johnson- Houston Texans
Age: 28
Size: 6'3 225
2008 Stats: 115rec.'s 1,575yds 8tds

I would posit that only Andre Johnson can be considered in the same league as Calvin Johnson when it comes to size/speed combination- Andre Johnson is a 6'3 225 WR who also ran in the low 4.3's prior to being drafted 5th overall by the Houston Texans. What I mean by that is that both Johnson's- Andre and Calvin- are so physically gifted that it you cannot possibly label them as mainly a possession receiver or mainly a deep threat. For all Larry Fitzgerald's gifts as a receiver, his average speed precludes him from being the type of dangerous deep threat that a randy moss is; though his leaping ability and hands still make him pretty elite in that regard, he is still best described as a possession receiver. Likewise, it doesn't take long to realize that Randy Moss is much more apt to making big plays on deep routes than he is going over the middle. I would simply make the argument that it is harder to make that discrepancy with both Calvin and Andre Johnson- which makes it that much harder for teams to design defenses to limit their production.

Andre Johnson broke out. last season, with 115 catches for 1575 yards and 8 touchdowns. He seems like a virtual lock to be able to consistently put up 90-100 catches for 1,300+ yards over the next couple of years. He has yet to reach double digit touchdowns over the course of the season- but I believe he will break that trend this year. He is 28 but came into the pros considerably more raw- coming out of Miami as a junior- and has had to come a longer way to learn how to be an equally dangerous threat in a short-field situation- as he is in the open-field.

All in all, Andre Johnson is entering his prime years and has a QB in Matt Schaub who, if healthy, is more than capable of making all the throws. If you missed out on the opportunity to nab Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald- Andre Johnson is a very nice consolation prize. Furthermore, don't be surprised if, in the scope of the 2009-2010 season, Andre Johnson puts up more fantasy points than any other wide receiver- including the two aforementioned names on this list.

4. Randy Moss- New England Patriots
Age: 32
Size: 6'4 210
2008 Stats: 69rec.'s 1,008yds 11tds

There is a decent amount of uncertainty surrounding where Moss' stats will fall on the production spectrum for 2009 and beyond- and a lot of that has to do with how well Tom Brady returns to form. If Brady comes back 100% you can expect a big year from moss as possibly the wide receiver with the highest fantasy upside for next season. If Brady struggles, some, early then you might see similar overall production to last year- where Moss puts up pedestrian numbers through the early portion of the season then begins to take off as his QB begins to get into a rhythm. I am inclined to think that Brady will not have much of an adjustment period and this fearsome combo will regain form.

Further, I believe Moss has 3 more years of pro-bowl level play- but may see a drastic drop off in production thereafter. Still, he lands number four on this list because that three year span may all include 15+ touchdown seasons and single-handely win you a couple fantasy championships. The impact of having a true difference-maker in your starting lineup cannot be understated as they can make up the difference for disappointing performances put in by other players.

His age, 32, and modest production (by his standards)- 69 catches 1,011 yards and 11 touchdowns- in 2008, may give you pause when there are other younger enticing options like G. Jennings, Roddy White and Dwayne Bowe. But they do not have the quarterback or the potential to give you what Moss still can- and while safer decisions usually allow you the better opportunity to consistently field good teams, taking risks are what usually win you those all-important fantasy championships. I'll take the championships.

5. Greg Jennings- Green Bay Packers
Age: 25
Size: 5'11 198
2008 Stats: 80rec.'s 1,292yds 9tds

This is where I believe you start to get into the second tier of upper-echelon Wide Receiver keepers. C. Johnson, Fitzgerald, A. Johnson and Randy Moss all constitute the cream of the crop as players who have arrived and should be virtual locks as top 5 fantasy receivers- barring injuries- over the next 3-5 years.

Greg Jennings has the potential to join that group. However, he does not possess the freakish ability that the other four aforementioned names do. Still, he has been consistently dangerous- since bursting onto the scene as a rookie out of Western Michigan- and offers a solid combination of deep-speed and toughness which make him both a threat on deep throws and over the middle. At 25, he has not yet reached his peak, and his 2008 numbers- which included 80 catches for 1292 yards and 9 touchdowns- suggest that he should ascend to elite status in the near future.

What Jennings also has going for him is stability, at the Quarterback position, as Aaron Rodgers showed, last season, that he could very well become a pro-bowl caliber quarterback. All these factors suggest that Jennings is worthy of being ranked as the 5th best keeper- and while it is easy to be intrigued by the potential of a 6'3/6'4 receiver it would be foolish to disregard the production of a player like Jennings, or discount him as potentially elite just because that production comes in a 5'11 190 pound package- which is exactly what Greg Jennings comes in at. If you need any further proof.... well, Marvin Harrison says hi.

6. Steve Smith- Carolina Panthers
Age: 30
Size: 5'9 185
2008 Stats: 78rec.'s 1,421yds 6tds

Speaking of elite-level fantasy receivers who offer high upside despite a diminutive package- Steve Smith is a player who could launch your team to fantasy stardom with his ability to make plays all over the field. To me, Steve Smith is the most fascinating receiver to watch because of his exceptional speed and toughness which allow him to overcome defenses which are consistently designed to shut him down. Despite being a truly smallish receiver- at a generous 5'9 and 185 pounds- he can beat a team as a true possession receiver, in addition to burning them on the deep route. I have literally seen 3 defenders converge on Smith for what looked to be a short gain- only to see him somehow squeeze and contort his body out of the defender(s) grasps and take it all the way to the house. No player plays with more pure emotion and his will to succeed his what allows him to consistently gain the upper hand against players who are, frankly, twice his size. When healthy, he offers almost as much upside- which should be 80 catches for 1,300 yards and 10-12 scores- as any player on this list.

However, the caveat- when healthy- is something worth noting as- given his size and the way in which he plays- he is especially susceptible to injury and has been known to miss a couple of games, here in there, due to a large amount of nagging injuries. As well, the quaterback situation, in Carolina, is a bit unsettled and it is worth taking into consideration that Jake Delhomme might not have much, if anything, left in the tank. This puts added pressure on Steve Smith to make plays on screen passes and other short-to-intermediate routes which especially expose him to big hits.

Drafting Steve Smith- over say a player like Roddy White or Dwayne Bowe- should be dependent on whether you think you will have a team that is built to compete this year. If you value production over the next two years; Steve Smith is your guy. However, if you are looking more at who will provide you with the most production, as a keeper, over the next 5 years; other, younger, wide receivers might be the way to go.

At 30 years old, however, Steve Smith should still be a player you can bank on for the next 3 to 5 years and could very well be a player who is slightly undervalued on draft day- but still gives you that elite-level production that can match any other receiver in the league.

7. Reggie Wayne- Indianapolis Colts
Age: 30
Size: 6'0 198
2008 Stats: 82rec.'s 1,145yds 6tds

With the release of Marvin Harrison, the move confirms what we have come to realize over the past two years; Reggie Wayne is the number 1 receiver for the Indianapolis Colts. While this does not change much, schematically, for Wayne's role in the Colts offense. It does, for Wayne, provide a mental boost that he no longer is playing in the shadow of one of the all-time great quaterback/wide receiver combos to ever play the game. Further, Peyton is once again healthy, after dealing with some injury issues which limited his fantasy prospects last season. Now, the Manning/Wayne era can truly begin and those factors alone might propel Wayne to his finest fantasy season yet.

Last year, Reggie Wayne put up respectable numbers- in the mold of 82 catches for 1145 yards and 6 touchdowns. However, everything seems to be in place for him to see a considerable bump in production for this year- especially in the form of touchdown receptions. Moving forward, Wayne isn't getting any younger, at 30, but his skill set suggests that he is the type of player who can maintain a high-level of play well into his 30's. What I mean by that is- instead of relying on an exceptional size/speed combination to make plays- he uses precise route running and remarkable hands to make plays; these characteristics don't erode as quickly as size or speed does for a player.

Draft Reggie Wayne, with confidence, moving forward and don't expect to be surprised if he rattles off one or two seasons which are a notch above, in terms of sheer stats, what he has posted in his previous 8 seasons in the league.

8. Roddy White- Atlanta Falcons
Age: 27
Size: 6'0 212
2008 Stats: 88rec.'s 1,382yds 7tds

Roddy White enjoyed a tremendous breakout season as part of a resurgent offense which took off with the additions of fantasy stud Michael "the burner" Turner and Matt "Matty Ice" Ryan. As a rookie, Matt Ryan felt instantly comfortable hinging his first year success on the breathtaking ability of Roddy White- as he targeted the young wideout roughly 34% of the time. With the addition of Tony Gonzalez, Matt Ryan would be wise to use his full array of options in order to keep defenses from rolling their coverage to much to White. However, the instant trust which has developed between Ryan and White means that he will never stray too far away from from relying on white to make clutch plays.

I do have concerns about Roddy White- none of which pertain to his on-the-field ability. He has started training camp as a holdout in an effort to capitalize on his breakout season; This could hinder some of the necessary development that takes place during training camp between a QB and his number 1 receiver. However, I am more concerned about Roddy White's demeanor. He has not done anything, yet, to strongly bring his character into question. Nonetheless, he seems to have a somewhat immature personality that could lead to problems in the future- much in the same way we have seen immature transgressions setback great talents like Brandon Marshall and Chad "Ochocinco". My concerns are probably unwarranted but, still, it is important to note when you are looking to draft a player who could potentially make or break your fantasy team over the next five years.

Regardless, Roddy White is a true burner with Steve Smith-like after the catch ability and his production combined with his age, 27, and future potential mean that he is a player who you can rely on to be an exciting cornerstone for your team for next year and beyond.

9. Marques Colston- New Orleans Saints
Age: 26
Size: 6'4 225
2008 Stats: 47rec.'s 790yds 5tds

Colston has experienced somewhat of a roller coaster ride through his first three seasons as a Saint. He unexpectedly burst on to the scene, as a rookie out of Hofstra, by compiling 70 receptions for 1038 yards and 11 scores- those numbers would have been even greater had he not experienced an injury that kept him out of the last two games of the 2006 season. He followed up his exceptional rookie campaign with another strong season, in 2007, when he posted 98 catches for 1,202 yards and 11 touchdowns. Then, in his third year- the year in which young WR's usually experience their most dramatic jump in production- he fell flat by only putting together a season comprised of 47 catches for 790 yards and 5 scores.

So which Marques Colston will we be getting in 2009 and beyond? I will venture to say we will getting something as good or better than the 2007 version of Colston and there is plenty of evidence to support that claim. First, he is young, at 26, and possesses the prototypical possession receiver's frame- at 6'4 225. Second, his production in 2006 and 2007 is hard to ignore and it is certainly plausible to think that he will ascend to greater numbers as he continues to learn how to be a receiver- and not just a physical beast roaming over the middle. Lastly, and most importantly, he has the number 1 fantasy QB throwing to him, in Drew Brees, and Colston will likely be his security blanket in any difficult situation. True, Brees is a QB who likes to spread the ball around instead of fixating on a single receiver. However, Brees likely potential as a 4,000-5,000 yard passer means that he can comfortably spread the ball around, and at the end of the day Colston still ends up with 8 catches for 110 yards and two scores. There is little doubt that, in read zone passing situations, Colston will be Brees' go-to receiver and which means that there is huge touchdown potential for Colston in 2009.

You could look at Colston's 2008 stats and instantly be turned off. Or, you could do the smart think and look at everything else and realize he should come up big for you from here on out.

10. Dwayne Bowe- Kansas City Chiefs
Age: 24
Size: 6'2 221
2008 Stats: 86rec.'s 1,022yds 7tds

Here's a suggestion, don't over-think when it comes to making a determination on Bowe's long-term prospects- let me take care of that. Bowe had a very nice season, last year- posting 82 catches for 1,022 yards and 7 touchdowns- while dealing with an underwhelming quarterback situation and and playing in an even more underwhelming offense.

Yes, you could argue that Matt Cassel is overhyped and was merely the product of an intricately designed Josh McDaniels offense that featured possibly the leagues best pure possession receiver (Welker) and possibly the leagues best pure deep threat (Moss). However, agruing that-without weighing the positive signs would be unwise.

First, Cassel was brought in to Kansas City, via trade, by Scott Pioli- a smart man who compiled first-hand knowledge of Cassel's ability and potential while serving as the New England Patriots CO-GM- I say that because while he was technically the GM, it was clear that Belicheck had at least an equal hand in running the show. As well, Josh McDaniels made a well documented attempt at trying to convince the Broncos to trade for Cassel- ultimately at the expense of losing his incumbant pro-bowl QB. Finally, in Kansas City, Cassel has a head coach who is equally adept- as McDaniel's- at designing successful offenses and should be able to implement a system which plays up Cassel's strengths and allows him to effectively distribute the ball to its playmakers.

You might wonder why there was no analysis, or even mention, of Bowe in that last paragraph. And the simple answer is that there is very little analysis needed when it comes to Bowe's physical abilities. If I can invoke a qoute from Vince Vaughn, in the movie Swingers, to describe Bowe- "he's so money, baby!". And if you decide to draft Bowe, you and your fantasy team will be money too- well, unless you screw up the rest of the draft.