Monday, October 19, 2009

Scouting Report: Jake Locker


Arm Strength- Locker has above-average to excellent arm strength. I hate saying someone can "make all the throws" because I believe that is a bit of a misnomer. But I will say that he has the arm strength to drive the ball to any "quadrant" of the field. However you want to phrase it, Jake Locker has plenty of arm strength and NFL offensive coordinators will not have to limit their offensive play calls due to the fact that he can't get the ball to a certain part of the field.
Accuracy- Locker has average to above-average all around accuracy. I say all around because accuracy is actually comprised of several components which need to be evaluated. There are the primary components- short (0-10 yards) to intermediate (10-20 yards) accuracy; Deep ball (20+ yards) accuracy- and there are the secondary components- consistency; touch; timing; spiral tightness and catchability (not to be confused with drinkability)- which go into making a good accurate pass on routes that are run in those ranges.
Short-to-Intermediate Throws- he displays above-average accuracy. He is not to the point where he is automatic on being able to put certain throws in certain spots every time. However, when he is confident about where he is going with the ball, he usually puts it in a good spot where his receiver can quickly catch it and look to gain YAC.... Locker also displays average to above-average touch in making throws in this range. He tends to be good about taking some off his throws when needed in order to float a pass over a linebacker or D-lineman. Sometimes he can misread the depth of an LB and float one- especially under duress- into the hands of a defender. but, overall, he has made significant progress in this area. His best attribute, however, is that he displays, generally, excellent touch on the run. This will make him a valuable commodity for teams with porous offensive lines come draft time.... As well, one of the most impressive improvements in Jake Locker's game has been his timing on short to intermediate throws. He's starting to become very efficient at delivering the ball to his receivers right as they come out of their breaks. This is, in part, due to Sarkisian's ability to coach up Locker- but it is an improvement that will impress scouts in the filmroom.... Jake Locker throws an average spiral, in terms of it's tightness, on throws in this range. It's not a picture perfect spiral like Peyton's or Aaron Rodgers (love his spiral) but it's solid enough to present a catchable ball for the intended receiver.

Deep Ball Accuracy- Locker also displays average-to-above average accuracy on deep throws. Continuing to develop consistency on his deep throws will be key for Locker as he has the ability to make good consistent throws on deep routes... Touch and timing are the more important attributes to have on making accurate deep throws- as long as the quarterback has enough arm to get the ball there. Locker actually has above average touch on deep throws and shows a good ability to throw the ball at the right trajectory. His timing, however, is still a little inconsistent but he does seem to be continually improving and there is no reason to believe he can't become consistent. (side note: the fact that he is also an accomplished college baseball outfielder probably helps to explain the reason why he is above-average at judging the right trajectory to put on a throw as he makes many similar throws from a certain spot in the outfield to home).... His spiral is similarly average in its tightness on deep throws, but again his above-average touch allows him to generally provide a catchable ball for his receiver to make a play in tight coverage.

Mobility- Jake Locker's greatest asset, as I alluded to earlier, is his mobility- which is highlighted by his rumored 4.4 forty yard speed. More importantly, however, he has shown much improved instincts on when to run and when to stand tall in the pocket. This was aided by Sarkisian's decree in spring ball that he had to stay in the pocket. Due to his excellent mobility, teams will be forced to slow up there speed rush in the NFL in order to contain him. Where a player like Bradford may struggle playing for a team that can't protect him, Locker may thrive- similar to how good Ben Roethlisberger is on the run. He's not Mike Vick or Vince Young; but he is dangerous and NFL teams will be very cognizant of the fact that if they get too aggressive, he can really hurt them with his feet.

Decision Making/Intelligence-This is my biggest concern about Locker. While he has apparently made great strides in this area, I have to wonder how much his apparent improvement is manufactured by Sarkisian. If you watch him long enough, you start to realize that he seems to have already decided where he is going to go with the ball before the snap. Yes, this could be because he is becoming good at making presnap reads- but you have to wonder if this is because "Sark" has simplified the offense by predetermining, for Locker, which WR's he will throw to on which plays. This seems evident by the fact that Locker sometimes makes quick throws to wide receivers who are clearly covered. I, personally, want to see him make more throws in which he is scanning the field and throwing to his third and fourth receivers after he has made a quick determination that his first and/or second options have been taken away. I put so much emphasis on a QB's (DM) and intelligence that it's hard not to downgrade Locker, somewhat, even though his resume is otherwise superb.

Mechanics/Release/Footwork- Sarkisian seems to have done a terrific job at cleaning up all the technical errors in Jake Locker's game. Before this year he was raw in these areas. This year, he looks like a true pocket passer, in terms of his throwing mechanics and footwork which has greatly aided the improvement in his completion percentage. At times, he can be seen throwing off his back foot as his momentum is carrying him away from the intended receiver- But he has a strong enough arm that he can still get the ball to the receiver and, often times, he doesn't have the luxury to set his feet with a defender bearing down on him. He displays a very quickly release and a generally repeatable throwing motion. Again, the baseball background surely help to aid him in understanding the importance of a repeatable throwing motion.

Competitiveness/Leadership- Locker seems to be a highly competitive person who doesn't shy away from any situation in a big game. One thing that will be interesting, for NFL scouts to determine, is whether is true love is football or baseball- It is important to note that he is very much a pro prospect in regards to the MLB and the LAA Angels already have drafted him and secured his rights for the next ten years. You would like to think he would chose to pursue the sport which he has the most affinity for. But in reality, he will likely be a top 10 selection which will make it hard to pass up football, for baseball- where you don't start earning a major league paycheck until you actually make it to the big leagues which, for Locker, could take 3-4 years. However, I am not overly concerned about which sport he has more passion for because it is important only in the sense of will he be motivated to continue to improve even after he has signed a large contract.... I think his considerable improvement in college demonstrates that he will.

Conclusion- Jake Locker is clearly a top 10 pro prospect in terms of skill set. Furthermore, he shows the willingness and drive to continue to get better and the competitiveness to take on the responsibility of being an NFL quarterback for what is likely to be an underwhelming team. However, I still rate Sam Bradford and Jimmy Clausen slightly ahead of him, at this point, because they are much more cerebral quarterbacks- which I value as much as anything. This doesn't mean I think Locker can't get there; but to this point I haven't seen enough of it to truly fall in love with all the other attributes he has which could potentially make him a rare QB prospect. I think it would be in his best interest to go back to school for his senior year, from a development standpoint- but recognize that it is in his best interest to come out from a financial standpoint given the fact that he already has achieved top 10 QB status and this could be the last draft before a rookie salary scale is implemented (which would limit the earning power of top picks on rookie contracts).... So expect Jake Locker to bypass his senior year in order to enter into the 2010 NFL Draft.

Friday, October 9, 2009

Round 1
1. St. Louis- Sam Bradford
2. Kansas City- Eric Berry
3. Tampa Bay- Ndamukong Suh
4. Cleveland- Gerald McCoy
5. Oakland- Carlos Dunlap
6. Washington- Jimmy Clausen
7. Detroit- Russell Okung
8. San Francisco - from Carolina- Taylor Mays
9. Buffalo- Brian Buluga
10. Tennessee- Rolando McClain
11. Miami- Dez Bryant
12. Arizona- Greg Hardy
13. Dallas- Terrence Cody
14. Seattle- Trent Williams
15. Houston- Joe Haden
16. Jacksonville- Tim Tebow
17. Green Bay- Anthony Davis
18. San Diego- Jonathan Dwyer
19. Philadelphia- Reshad Jones
20. Atlanta- Morgan Burnett
21. Seattle - from Denver- Javhid Best
22. Denver - from Chicago- Colt McCoy
23. Cincinnati- Jermaine Gresham
24. New York Jets- Patrick Robinson
25. San Francisco- Jake Locker
26. New England- C.J. Spiller
27. Minnesota- Joe Pike
28. Baltimore- Demaryius Thomas
29. Pittsburgh- Ras-I Dowling
30. New Orleans- Lee Ziemba
31. Indianapolis- Arrellious Benn
32. New York Giants- Sean Weatherspoon

Chicago-Denver: Jay Cutler
Denver-Seattle: Alphonso Smith
Carolina-San Francisco: Everette Brown

Round 2
33. St. Louis- Derrick Morgan
34. Kansas City- Charles Brown
35. Tampa Bay- Damien Williams
36. Cleveland- Sergio Kindle
37. Oakland- Brandon Spikes
38. Washington- Ciron Black
39. Detroit- Everson Griffen
40. Carolina- Greg Romeus
41. Buffalo- Brandon Lafell
42. New England - from Tennessee- George Selvie
43. Miami- Myron Lewis
44. Arizona- Donavan Warren
45. Dallas- Marshawn Gilyard
46. Seattle- Trevard Lindley
47. Houston- Arthur Rhodes
48. New England - from Jacksonville- Kristopher O'Dowd
49. Green Bay- Mike Johnson
50. San Diego- Corey Wooten
51. Philadelphia- Brandon Graham
52. Kansas City - from Atlanta- Eric Decker
53. Denver- Vince Oghobaase
54. Chicago- Desmone Briscoe
55. Cincinnati- Mike Pouncey
56. New York Jets- Jerry Hughes
57. San Francisco- Eric Norwood
58. New England- Sam Young
59. Minnesota- Michael Morgan
60. Baltimore- Dominique Franks
61. Pittsburgh- Adam Ulatoski
62. New Orleans- Sean Lee
63. Indianapolis- Selvish Capers
64. New York Giants- Darrell Stuckey

Atlanta-Kansas City: Tony Gonzalez
Jacksonville-New England: Derek Cox
Tennessee-New England: Jared Cook

Round 3
65. St. Louis-Sy'Qaun Thompson
66. Kansas City- Brandon Ghee
67. Tampa Bay- Rod Muckelroy
68. Cleveland- Jacoby Ford
69. Oakland- Jake Fox
70. Washington- Rod Muckelroy
70. Detroit- Jared Ordick
71. Carolina- Jarrett Brown
72. Buffalo- Zach Robinson
73. Tennessee- C.J. Wilson
74. Miami- Eric Norwood
75. Arizona- Zane Beadles
76. Dallas- Eric Wang
77. Philadelphia - from Seattle- Navarro Bowman
78. Houston- Nate Allen
79. Jacksonville- Stephen Virgil
80. Green Bay- Walter Thurmond
81. San Diego- Pat Angerer
82. Philadelphia- Charles Scott
83. Atlanta- Perish Cox
84. Denver- Brandon Lang
85. Chicago- Quan Sturdivant
86. Cincinnati- Mike Williams
87. Cleveland - from New York Jets- Dennis Pitta
88. San Francisco- Jordan Shipley
89. Oakland - from New England- Kyle Wilson
90. Minnesota- Boo Robinson
91. Baltimore- Darryl Sharpton
92. Pittsburgh- Sergio Render
93. New Orleans- Geno Atkins
94. Indianapolis- Perry Riley
95. New York Giants- Kyle Calloway

Seattle-Philadelphia: Deon Butler
Washington used its 3rd-rounder in the Supplemental Draft
New England-Oakland: Derrick Burgess
Jets-Cleveland: Braylon Edwards

Sunday, October 4, 2009

Week 4 NFL Handicapping

Week 4

15dime-3 team, 6pt teaser (to win 27)
Houston -2.5
Bengals -.5
Giants -3

10dime-2team 6pt teaser
Bengals-.5
SF -3

10dime-Chargers +6.5

5dime-Patriots -1
5dime-Bills+1
5dime-Cowboys -3

Thursday, October 1, 2009

NHL Season Preview

Yes, expect some NHL analysis and Handicapping over the course of this season. Below are my picks for the regular season standings, as well as my playoff predictions.



1)
Washington-The Caps are an explosive team, built to succeed over the regular season; built for the Playoffs—maybe?

2) Philadelphia-Ray Emery is a massive ? but they can hurt you in so many ways.

3) Boston-There’s no way Tim Thomas can repeat last seasons success, but for all the talk about the Southeast being the worst division in Hockey, what about the Northeast?

4) Pittsburgh-Cup hangover causes them to start slow, but the machine will be ready for the playoffs.

5) Carolina-Underrated, scrappy team. Kept almost the entire team together

6) New Jersey- Brodeur is enough to keep them relevant in the East

7) Tampa Bay-I know it’s a common “sleeper pick”. This team will either boom or bust.

8) Buffalo-Because the rest of the East is just so mediocre.

9) Montreal-See Above

10) Toronto-I think they make real improvements, Burke will have them in the playoffs next season

11) Atlanta-Not as bad everyone thinks. Their Top 4 defenseman are very solid.

12) NY Rangers-Yeah, this is my way of saying—I don’t think Marion Gaborik can stay healthy

13) Florida-It honestly wouldn’t shock me to see Florida in the playoffs, but other than Horton who is going to score any goals for this team? The defense and goaltending is still good

14) Ottawa-Not enough scoring, not enough defense, and weak goaltending.

15) NY Islanders-They are on the Caps rebuilding plan, 2-3 more years Islander fans.

West

1) Chicago-If Huet can play like he did for his stretch for the Caps, probably the most complete team in Hockey

2) San Jose-Regular season success continues in San Jose, but can Thornton do anything in the playoffs?

3) Vancouver- Luongo and the twins is enough to keep them atop the division

4) Detroit-See Pittsburgh.

5) Anaheim-Wow, what a 1st round matchup this would be.

6) Calgary-Jay-Bo makes this team a tougher draw, plus shows the depth of the Western Conference

7) St Louis-A team on the rise, and would give the Sharks another 1st round scare

8) Los Angeles-I think they want a little more scoring, but this is a team that’s going to be in contention in the West for awhile

9) Nashville-Because you know they hover around 7-10 every year

10) Columbus-See above

11) Edmonton-Their betting on the Boulin Wall to take them to the playoffs, they needed help in other areas.

12) Minnesota-Who’s going to score for the Wild?

13) Dallas-Let in a ton of goals last year, bad PP + PK.

14) Phoenix-A disaster

15) Colorado-They need to blow this team up, and build through the draft


Playoffs-East

1st round

Washington over Buffalo-Next

Philadelphia over Tampa Bay-Next

New Jersey over Boston-The only competitive 1st round series I see in the above scenarios

Pittsburgh over Carolina-Carolina is tough, but probably a repeat of last years series


2nd round

Washington over New Jersey-The Caps successfully sacrifice enough goats to draw NJ instead of Pittsburgh in Rd 2

Pittsburgh over Philadelphia-I agonized over this. I love the Flyers team, but hate Emery. Emery can’t play good enough to win 4 games against Pittsburgh.


East Final

Pittsburgh over Washington-Obviously the Caps didn’t sacrifice enough in Rd 2. And the curse continues…


West

1st round

Chicago over LA

San Jose over St Louis

Calgary over Vancouver

Anaheim over Detroit


2nd round

Chicago over Calgary

Anaheim over San Jose


West Finals

Chicago over Anaheim


Stanley Cup

Chicago over Pittsburgh-The Marian Hossa Curse ends.