AFC North Fantasy Team by Team Preview

Baltimore Ravens
For years the only fantasy relevant players on Baltimore’s team were the decade’s best defense, Matt Stover and whatever Running Back that was taking pressure of one of Brian Billick’s carousel of Quarterbacks. Thanks to a first-year Head Coach and rookie Quarterback, a supposed rebuilding year was one drive away from a Super Bowl Appearance. Last season, the Ravens boasted the 18th ranked NFL offense under rookie, Joe Flacco. Not surprisingly, the Rushing attack ranked 4thcompared to their 28th ranked passing offense. The Ravens rushed the ball more than any team in the NFL, an average of 37 times a game. The nightmare for fantasy owners was which running back would get the majority of the carries. This offseason, LeRon McClain has assumed a more traditional fullback role, and Rice and McGahee are splitting time with the 1st team offense. Cam Cameron has promised to open up the offense for strong-armed, Joe Flacco, so here’s a look at the Ravens fantasy prospects this season.

Best Bet:
Ravens D/ST- A downfall for many people in fantasy football is they over-analyze. This is the Ravens, their bread and butter is still defense. Okay, they lost Bart Scott and Rex Ryan—but I have a quick history lesson for the doubters. First, we’ll start with the linebackers. Remember, Edgerton Hartwell? Well you probably don’t if you aren’t a Ravens fan. He was Bart Scott 5 years ago, who claimed he was better than Ray Lewis publicly and demanded to be paid and featured like the future 1st ballot Hall of Famer. Well, Atlanta sure wishes they hadn’t of heard of him. Jamie Sharper, he was selected in the expansion draft by the Houston Texans after helping lead the Ravens to the Superbowl, and did nothing. Adalius Thomas was lauded as the best player on the Ravens defense before leaving to the Patriots, and his fate appears to be the same as the other linebackers who have fallen short in paving their own legacy. Let’s move on to the Defensive Coordinators. Marvin Lewis was portrayed as the genius of that legendary 2000 Ravens defense, but as time as shown, that’s far from the case. Mike Nolan has already been fired from his tenure as the 49ers Head Coach. The Ravens defense might have missed Rex Ryan for 10-15 minutes, but Gregg Mattison has a better killer mentality for this defense. The only constant for Baltimore has been the dominating defense, led by the heart & soul, Ray Lewis. Also, let’s throw out the notion that this defense is “old”. Ray Lewis turned 34 this Summer, but he continues to defy time. He may have lost a step, but we’re comparing this to a time when he was arguably the best linebacker to ever play football when no running back could out-run “Sugar Ray”. Other than Trevor Pryce, no player on this defense can be considered remotely close to old. Ed Reed, turned 30, but he’s still in his prime and led the NFL in interceptions last year, and is always a threat to score. The Ravens locked Suggs up with a huge deal. The secondary is going to be much better than last year. The Ravens signed Dominique Foxworth to be their #1 CB and will pair with Fabian Washington to form the fastest cornerback duo in the league. Dawan Landry and Kelly Gregg return from missing all of last season. However, none of the above players may be as good as Haloti Ngata. Reports of demise of this Ravens defense is premature, expect them to be top 3-5 again this season.

Buyer Beware:
Ravens Running Backs- Let me preface this by saying if one of the running backs claims the starting job, they are instantly a #2 quality running back. However, going into last season nobody had heard of Le’Ron McClain and Willis McGahee didn’t even touch the ball in the season opener. The early reports state that Ray Rice is getting the majority of 1st team carries, with McGahee sharing the load. Also, McClain is reportedly returning to a traditional full-back role. Don’t believe everything you hear. McGahee was actually assuming his role as the #1 running back throughout the playoffs and than suffered a brutal hit in the final drive of the AFC Championship. All 3 running backs led the team in rushing at least for 3 games each over the season, and Joe Flacco even was the leading rusher for a game. The predictions that Ray Rice is the guy this year, is way too premature. Follow the Ravens over the rest of camp and pre-season, but I don’t believe immediately the Ravens will have a traditional starting running back.

Sleeper:
Demetrius Williams/Mark Clayton- Mark Clayton was my original pick, but he may be out until opening weekend. This is valuable time to continue building on the chemistry Flacco and he had been building. Ozzie Newsome and the coaching staff has had high hopes for Williams, or “Spiderman”, for a few seasons now—but injuries have cut the past 2 seasons short, early. He’s going to get even more reps with Flacco over the pre-season and every chance to claim a starting job. He’s got the speed, size, and athleticism people crave in receivers. This year it’s about staying on the field. Williams will go undrafted in most leagues. Follow his progress over the pre-season, and don’t miss out on picking him up week 3-4 on waivers if he explodes.

Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals seem to be fantasy footballs guiltiest pleasures. They celebrate 8 win seasons like they celebrate Skyline Chile in Cincy, but fantasy players—until least season—celebrated the gaudy offensive numbers this team put up. The Bengals seem to be many experts pick for Cinderella this year. Carson Palmer takes the reigns back from Ryan Fitzpatrick and the defense is slowly evolving into a respectable unit. However, the Bengals lost their only player who had fantasy importance, TJ Houshmanzadeh, to Seattle this offseason. While, the belief here is that these Bengals are no Cinderella, they should be much stronger for fantasy players this season.

Best Bet:
Chad Ochocinco- Or to some; the receiver formally known as Chad Johnson. I wish he would just pull a full-out Prince and turn his name into a symbol. After last years dreadful season, “85” has been very quiet this off-season, and has fallen off the fantasy radar. Before last season, OchoCinco had never amassed fewer than 87 catches, 1,274 yards or seven scores in a full season. Maybe, he won’t reach those numbers again, but he’s not the 2008 version. Ryan Fitzpatrick is gone; Carson Palmer is back and without his #1 redzone, Housh. OchoCinco will be Palmer’s #1 target again, and look for him to post solid #2 fantasy WR numbers.

Buyer Beware:
Cedric Benson- Benson recorder 63carries, 282 yards, and a touchdown in the final two contests of last season, and is being lauded as a fantasy sleeper. Before you go spending a 5th round pick on him, please remember he is Cedric Benson. He doesn’t have good speed, and has no hands. Granted the Bengals did award him with a 2-year contract with intentions of him getting the ball a lot, but don’t draft him early. He’s a risk-reward player, and by all means roll the dice on Benson if you have already built good depth at RB, but don’t expect him to be a regular contributor to a championship caliber fantasy team.

Sleeper:
Chris Henry- Yes, he’s been a sleeping giant now for a couple years running, and all he’s been doing is sleeping. However, I can’t underestimate the importance of Ryan Fitzpatrick being out of the picture. The Bengals don’t have a redzone target other than Henry, so maybe the year he lacks the hype, he can be a steal in the last rounds of your fantasy draft. Also, Cincy doesn’t have many players I consider “sleepers”. If Palmer stays healthy, remember there were rumors he might require Tommy-John surgery, he can be an effective fantasy starter. Coles will put up similar numbers to last year, and the Bengals don’t utilize their TE’s at all.


Cleveland Browns:
Do I have to write a fantasy preview on the Browns? Well, I guess some of you are in 20 team leagues and depth is important. In all seriousness, this was every experts “sleeper” with Derek Anderson bursting onto the scene, Braylon Edwards showed why he was a top 5 draft pick, and the Browns had a perceived strong offensive line, Jamal Lewis and Donte Stallworth. What happened in 2008, shouldn’t have been a surprise to most people but the Browns imploded. Derek Anderson was a Pro Bowl alternate in 2007, which was a joke. He was bad the last games of 2007, and still received that monster contract in the off-season. That’s why their the Cleveland Browns. Braylon Edwards dropped more passes than he caught, Donte Stallworth was injured almost the entire season, and Kellen Winslow did something right and got himself traded. Now how do the Browns project for this year? It’s scary, but thankfully for Sam Bradford he can escape the nightmare that is Cleveland, because they already have 2 quarterbacks to deal with.

Best Bet:
Braylon Edwards- Trust me; I wanted to cop-out and go with nobody. But, I had to pick. Instead of justifying the pick, we’ll go with process of elimination. Brady Quinn (Who will be the starter)? Please, I saw nothing in his last few games to think he’ll lead the Browns anywhere significant this year. It’s not his fault, I think he will be a good QB one day, but not right away. They have no TE’s worthwhile to speak of, or secondary receivers. They did use first-day picks on Robiskie and Massaquoi, but they don’t project to be fantasy relevant this season. The defense is brutal, let’s move on. Jamal Lewis was considered, but he’s hitting the magical age of the 30, and the reports are the Browns do like James Davis. Personally, I liked what I saw from Jerome Harrison, but apparently the Browns don’t. Whoever assumes the role of Browns starting RB should be no more than a flex play in your lineup.

Buyer Beware- See Above (Ok, I copped out).

Sleeper- See Above.

Pittsburgh Steelers:
If you’re a Steelers fan, what’s not to like? Your team is defending Superbowl Champs and easily has the best arsenal of fantasy players in the division. They boasted the leagues best statistical and scoring defense, and there is absolutely no reason to believe the Steelers will be a top 3 defense again this season. Woodley and Harrison are absolute terrors to opposing quarterbacks and create big plays for Pittsburgh’s defense. With Casey Hampton up front and Troy Polamalu roaming center field; expect the Steelers defense to be an absolute force. Offensively, it’s a different story. A team that has built a reputation for a stingy defense, and a tough running game, was lacking the latter last season. Due to an early season ending injury to 1st round pick Rashard Mendenhall and a poor offensive line, the Steelers ended the season with the 23rd rushing attack, and 22nd offense overall.

Best Bet:
Santonio Holmes- Are we getting crazy off the hype from “The Catch”? Maybe. Yes, he was arguably the most overrated fantasy WR going into last year’s draft, but I believe this is the year he becomes the #1 receiver in Pittsburgh. Remember, Pittsburgh is not built to run the football like the Jerome Bettis days. This team moved the chains in the air. Holmes, a recent 1st round pick, has yet to live up to the potential of his draft status, but this is the year for that. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Holmes with 1,100 yards with 8 touchdowns.

Obviously, this spot should belong to the D/ST who ranked 2nd last year to Baltimore. Look for the defense to again be Top 3, and they should definitely be the first defense taken in your fantasy league.

Some consideration for the always reliable, tough Hines Ward was given. However, the belief here is that Santonio Holmes blossoms to into a surefire #2 WR in your lineup, with the potential to be a top 10 fantasy receiver.

Buyer Beware:
Willie Parker- Ravens fans weren’t the only ones who loved the crushing hit Ray Lewis put on Rashard Mendenhall fracturing his shoulder and putting him out for the year. However, the joy Fast Willie fans were feeling that their man was out of the timeshare was short lived when Parker had a dreadful 2008 fantasy season. He finished outside the Top 40 last year, partly due to missing 5 games to injury. Most fantasy outlets have Parker ranked around 20-25. That’s a #2 RB during bye weeks, and I don’t want a piece of that or in my flex spot. Here's why: Willie Parker is not the same guy that rushed for 1,500 yards and 13 touchdowns like he did in 2006, not even close. Every year since Fast Willie burst onto the scene his YPC has dropped significantly (5.8 in 2004to 3.8 to 2008) over the past year. His 13 touchdowns in '06, just forget it. He followed up 2007 with an impressive 1,300 yards but for his fantasy owners he punched in all of 2 touchdowns. If, and that's a big if, Parker can stay healthy in matchup games he'll give you good yardage, but even than there's a good chance he won't find the endzone. The Steelers did nothing to address the shortcomings on their offensive line other than reward TE-blocking extraordinaire, Heath Miller, with one of the richest TE contracts in the league. Coupled with the fact that even though Mendenhall disappointed last year, he factors to play a larger role in the offense and take a fair share of the goal-line duties.

Sleeper:
Ben Roethlisberger- It’s hard to believe a 2-time Superbowl Champion quarterback could be a sleeper, but he did finish 20th among Fantasy QB’s last season. Here’s a quick timeline of Roethlisberger’s NFL career. He wins the Superbowl in 2005. In 2006, he crashes his motorcycle in the off-season, and his performance that season worse than the crash. 2007, Big Ben puts up monster fantasy numbers. 2008, Joe Flacco bests him on fantasy numbers, but he wins the Superbowl. Following the timeline, Pittsburgh should miss the playoffs, but Ben will become a #1 fantasy QB. Not so fast. Pittsburgh will be great again, but once again following a Superbowl win, there are questions surrounding the starting QB. Roethlisberger is facing sexual assault allegations that on the surface seem nothing more than an attempt at a quick check, but this team and the surrounding weapons are better than the 2006 season. At the very worst Big Ben is your #2 QB and can become a match-up play. There’s plenty of upside to believe that Ben can post 2007 numbers, and be a steal later in your fantasy draft.