Oakland Raiders Fantasy Preview

Just Win Baby!
Can McFadden and a young supporting cast bring Da Raidaz from the depths of fantasy irrelevance?

As I have watched the Raiders play, I can't help but think of The Comedian in the movie "Watchmen" in which he dramatically comes to the realization "it's all one big practical joke". Banners draped around the Oakland Coliseum which proclaim "commitment to excellence" and "just win baby!" seem to merely serve as ironic doormats for a decrepit coliseum that currently houses a team that, well, simply "can't win baby!" Nonetheless, a new season brings new hope, and the Raiders finally seem to have the ingredients in place to go on a successful run. Sure, you can jump on the media bandwagon, say Mr. Davis has lost his mind, and confidently proclaim no Raiders are worth a roster spot on your team... but you would be foolishly missing out on a healthy mix of potential fantasy superstars and buy-low opportunities who may just put you over the top in your fantasy league.

The offense boils down to Jamarcus Russell and how well he manages the offense through not making mistakes and being able to win games for the Raiders when the opportunity presents itself. Last season, he proved he could do this, leading the Raiders to consecutive wins over the Houston Texans and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Last night, he was solid going 6-9 for 50 yards in very limited play. He was especially decisive in going through his progressions and displaying nice accuracy on short-to-intermediate routes (which was something he struggled with last season). Ironically- considering he has one of the strongest arms in football- the only throws in which he was not crisp were deep passes to Heyward-Bey and Schilens. As we continue to get further into the season, Russell will begin to make those passes with ease. Last year Russell threw for 2,423 yards and 13 touchdowns to 8 interceptions. Expect him to reach the 3,000 yard mark while throwing 18-20 touchdowns, this season, while leading the Raiders back to respectability and, ultimately, tempering unwarranted national media talk that he will turn into a bust- he's just too talented.

Best Bets:
Darren McFadden- Last year, McFadden had a season of mixed reviews as he turned in a stellar performance against the chiefs- but otherwise was limited due to a nagging turf toe injury. He finished the season with 499 yards rushing (4.5 ypc) and 285 yards receiving. In 2009, McFadden is healthy and ready to lead a rushing attack that seems poised to become a top 5 rushing unit. He has competition- in the form of Michael Bush and Justin Fargas- for carries, but at the end of the day McFadden will receive the lions-share of touches and subsequently reward his fantasy owners with a plethora of yards and touchdowns that come from a multitude of different roles. I am confident- barring injury- that McFadden will reach the 1,000 yard mark in his second season and reach the endzone 10+ times- through rushing and receiving. He is a special all-around talent and displays the kind of electric one cut and go running style that is ideal for Coach Cable's highly effective zone blocking scheme.

Zach Miller- Mark this down, Zach Miller will be a top 5 tight end this season. Last year, Miller was Russell's only reliable receiver, catching 56 balls for 776 yards and 1 touchdown. The added attention he faced, from defenses, made it nearly impossible to find holes in the redzone. This year, the Raiders finally possess the kind of options, on the outside, to loosen up the middle of the field which means Miller is prime to improve statistically in every area. Expect 60+ catches for 800+ yards and 5-6 scores this season. Not bad, considering he will likely be flying under the radar come draft time.

Buyer Beware
Justin Fargas- Many Raiders fans hold high regard for Fargas because of the guts and determination with which he displays on run plays and pass blocking. He represents a leader by example, with his passion for the game, on a team that otherwise has not had many throughout the past couple of years. Despite all that positive, he is now on a team with two other running backs- McFadden and Bush- who are immensely more talented and exhibit the same fire and passion necessary to succeed. Consider it a great accomplishment- and a testament to his inner will- if he exceed's 500 yards and 3 touchdowns. In other words, fantasy folks, stay away!

Darrius Heyward-Bey- Simple NFL logic states that the wide receiver position is one of the toughest position for rookies to adjust to. While some rookie receivers- i.e. DeSean Jackson and Eddie Royal last year- have debunked this perception and gone on to have exceptional rookie seasons. However, Heyward-Bey is not going to be one of those rookies. Heyward-Bey is raw and needs to learn the nuances of running routes in order to reach his unlimited potential. This will take time, and I do not expect him to be a true fantasy option until year 3- which is generally where young receivers experience their biggest boost in production anyways. Still, he will likely be a starter from the first game on because of the value he holds as a player who can stretch the field, and defense. It didn't take long to see, in the Raiders first preseason game, how the Cowboys had to commit a corner and a safety to Heyward-Bey every time he ran a deep route. This had a direct effect on McFadden being able to break off a 45 yard run in the first quarter of last night's game. In the end, Heyward-Bey will start and he may have somewhat of a successful rookie campaign because of it. Regardless, committing anything more than a late round flier on his immense talent in year one would be foolish.

Sleepers
Chaz Schilens- you want to know why the Raiders passed on Michael Crabtree with the 7th overall pick in this year's draft... look no further than Chaz Schilens, a 2nd year WR, as that answer. Schilens represents a bigger (he's 6'4), faster (he ran a 4.35 forty at his pro day) version of Crabtree and plays the exact same role that Crabtree would play in this offense. Last night, against the Cowboys, he was a man among boys catching 5 passes for 52 yards in the first quarter of last nights game- 4 of those 5 catches came on the very first possession by the Raiders offense. Throughout this year's training camp, he has been touted as the next great receiver in Oakland and last night was just a glimpse of what is in store for Schilens this year and beyond. I expect him to catch 60+ balls this season, at least, for 900+ yards and 6-7 touchdowns. And these numbers will merely represent a starting point before he truly takes off in year 3.

Michael Bush- Lost in all the hype surrounding McFadden is the fact that Bush is almost as impressive a young back and could, as well, be in for a big year. A big back, at 6'1 245, Bush was a likely first round pick before he experienced a season ending injury in week 2 of his senior year. Bush combines power with surprising agility to run over or around defenders. He is also a very capable pass catcher and will be used throughout the season in that role as well. Last year, Bush made a hug statement by rushing for 177 yards and 2 scores in the final game of the season against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Throughout camp, and in last nights preseason game, he has continued to show off his talent and why Justin Fargas may be looking for a new team in the not so distant future. Once all the clear starting running backs have been taken, look to pounce on Bush and be pleasantly surprised as he amasses 700-800 rushing yards and 6-7 touchdowns with a chance at much more if injuries suddenly get the best of McFadden.