Will Cutler Sail in the Windy City? The Bears have always had a Superbowl caliber defense, that's been held back by an inept offense. Enter, Jay Cutler and the Superbowl talk. The Bears, under Lovie Smith, have been a very conservative offense, but they've never had an arm like Cutler. However, the Bears won't change their gameplan. They will continue to pound the rock, be conservative, avoid turnovers, but with Cutler they'll take an extra shot or 2 down field a game. Cutlet will not throw the ball 616 times this year, nor throw for 4,500+ yards. His fantasy prospects sure take a hit, but the Bears are now a legit contender in the NFC.
Best Bet:
Matt Forte-That was easy. Forte had an incredible rookie year, and will be a big beneficiary of the QB switch from Kyle Orton to Jay Cutler. Cutler will force defenses to, finally, respect the passing game in Chicago, and Forte will have less 8-man fronts to deal with. Forte, with LT, led the NFL in receiving targets for running backs and was fourth in carries. He's a lock for 300 carries, 50 catches, and double-digit touchdowns.
Buyer Beware:
Jay Cutler-No, this is not a personal vendetta against a premadonna who seems to be pissing every one off; it's really simple mathematics. Subtract elite WRs like Eddie Royal and Brandon Marshall. Add, conservative, run-first style of the Chicago offense and a future All-Pro Running back in Matt Forte. Gone are the days when Cutler has 40-50 attempts per-game, the Bears will take a few shots down field per-game, but Cutler isn't suddenly going to turn this offense into the Broncos. All this equals, Jay Cutler not being an elite fantasy QB. The only positive for Cutler's fantasy prospects from the switch is playing the Lions 2x a year.
Sleeper:
Greg Olsen-Olsen has been a 'sleeper' pick now for 2 seasons, and his production has been nothing more than a borderline start. This year changes that. My prediction, Olsen will be Top-3. He saw a huge increase in targets and touchdowns from 2007 to 2008. He scored 3 Touchdowns in the final 4 games last season. He's not a great blocker, so his job is to catch passes and work the middle of the field. The most important piece to the Greg Olsen for fantasy glory puzzle, The Bears still don't have any good WRs. Cutler, who quickly seems to alienate everyone around him, newest victim being Devin Hester, should love throwing the ball to Olsen. He's got good hands, and the Bears, especially in the latter half of last season, seemed to call plays especially for Olsen in the redzone. The best part for savvy Fantasy players is he won't go when people reach for TE's early. You can still build good depth at RB, WR and get similar TE production by drafting Olsen a few rounds later.
Ron Turner has no problem throwing the ball. He had Eric Kramer do it 522 times for da Bears in 1995. Would expect the same this year if the receiving corp is up for it.
ReplyDeleteCutler threw it 616 times last year and 467 the year before.
"If the receiving corp is up for it" being the operative phrase... Olsen is due for a big year, and having a very good receiving RB, like forte, will help; but I am very interested to see how the receivers perform this year. It can't just be Hester who steps up. Players like Earl Bennett and rookie Juaquin Iglesias have to put in productive years in order to give Cutler the chance to sling the rock around that much.
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