7 Ways to Approach Draft DayDecember 22, 2008, I was sitting in the MGM Grand Hotel & Casino in Las Vegas watching MNF in the Sportsbook. At that moment, the hundreds of dollars I had previously lost at the BlackJack tables or the flair bartenders dancing on-top of the bar were the last things on my mind. Mason Crosby's late 4th quarter FG was going to determine how my last night in Vegas would be spent. If it's good-I lose in my Fantasy Football championship, go to sleep early, and get ready for an early flight.
That night, not only did I make several hundred of my debt back on the Craps table, the FG was blocked. The debt turned into a profit, and 5 months of hard work, literally paid off with a Fantasy Football Championship.
The thrill of winning in Vegas made it even sweeter. For those like me, that watch football for 12 hours every Sunday with their laptop on stand-by to follow up-to-the-minute updates, the feeling of winning it all cannot be matched.
Tonight my quest to re-capture fantasy glory begins. Tonight is my first draft night of the couple serious leagues I play in. Months of preparation go into tonight, and my path to another fantasy championship begins today.
My goal here is to give the strategies I implement for my Fantasy draft so others can have a similar experience. The importance of draft day cannot be understated; You can't win your league on draft day, but you can sure lose it.
1) Eliminate the RB-RB strategy, Draft 2 WR's early.
For years, the mantra was you needed to have 2 stud RB's to win your league. Some people would draft RB-RB-RB, sacrificing top-end talent at other positions to make sure their RBs were elite. Here are some names to sink your teeth into:
DeAngelo Williams (1st in FF RB points in 2008 )
Michael Turner (2)
Matt Forte (5)
Steve Slaton (6)
Chris Johnson (11)
None of these players were taken anywhere near the top rounds. If someone in your league last year would have taken Matt Forte in the 3rd round, you would be screaming for drug-testing to be implemented immediately. Even Thomas Jones, who finished 4th among Fantasy RBs, was available after the top rounds. The point is that RBs are a dime-a-dozen. The elite Fantasy WRs are not; they are the big names that you would expect. The only way to get top production from your WRs, is to spend high-end draft picks. The WRs outside of the Top 15 are pretty interchangeable.
There are plenty of RB sleepers I love (Look for that article very soon!) and plenty of top-end RBs I hate. I don't care if you draft RB-WR-WR, WR-RB-WR, or WR-WR-RB, it depends where you are drafting and how the chips fall; but make sure you get your starting WRs very early.
2) Mock Drafts
Mock Drafts aren't just for Mel Kiper or Raiders Fans come October. Not to sound like your 5th grade baseball coach, but "Practice Makes Perfect". How else are you going gauge the value of your "sleepers" if you don't use mock drafts. Do enough mock drafts, and you'll get a sense of how players are valued by fellow fantasy football players.
Don't do mock drafts with people in your league. It might be fun do mock drafts with your friends across the country or your roommates if they happen to be in your league. You tip your hand. Unless you can go into your mock draft with a strong poker face, Just Say No to mock drafting with friends.
3) Know Your League (Settings)
It may seem simple, or dumb, to you; but memorize your scoring rules. If your league awards 6 points per Passing TD or a point for every 15 passing yards, you need an elite QB early. If the rules are 4pts per Passing TD and a point for 25 yards, outside of the 'Big 3' quarterbacks, there isn't good value in drafting a QB early.
If you play PPR, Michael Turner in no way is a Top-5 RB.
It's simple, but important, learn your rules.
4) Know Your League (Personnel)
Create a Fantasy Football Draft War-Room.
Print out roster sheets for all players and fill it in as the draft progresses. Why? It's the fastest, most efficient way to keep track of other teams rosters and needs.
Example of how this is effective:
It's Round 6, and you don't have a QB in a 12 team league. In my opinion, there's not a significant difference between the QBs after Philip Rivers. The QBs I have ranked 7-13, are almost interchangeable to me. 9 of the teams in my league have already taken their QB. I have 4 QBs I like about the same, and only 3 teams that need quarterbacks. There's no reason to take a QB now. I can probably build depth with a potential break-out player like Knowshon Moreno or Leon Washington and still get a QB I like 2 rounds later. I know all draft rooms offer a feature that lets you quickly access anyones roster, but; this method is more efficient and let's you look at all of them at once and not waste valuable time.
5) Value
If Brian Westbrook falls to you in the 3rd round, can you really pass? What about Jamal Lewis or Willie Parker in the 9th round. I 'hate' both of them, but there's the issue of value.
Do you have to take them? I don't know.
I have no problem passing on older, or injury-riddled former star if it's in favor of a younger player with tons of upside. James Davis and Jamal Lewis are being drafted within a few rounds of each other. If Lewis and Davis are still available, I'm taking Davis. The odds are in favor of Lewis having the better season, but the upside on Davis is huge. We know Jamal Lewis' ceiling. It's hard to call 10th round picks, a risk; but by then you have your starters, draft players with huge upside, even if it's "too early". I don't care where players are projected to go, draft the players you have targeted as sleepers a round or 2 early. Ray Rice or Thomas Jones? Jones was the 4th best RB last year, Ray Rice was the 3rd head of the 3 headed monster in Baltimore. It seems like a no-brainer, but I'm taking Rice. The upside on Rice is huge. I know Thomas Jones is perfectly capable of putting up last years numbers, but I'm a betting man, and I'm betting against Thomas Jones. Rice has all the tools to be this year's Steve Slaton or DeAngelo Williams.
Don't draft like your the GM of a NFL team. You don't always need to take Best Player Available or draft for needs. Build your starting rosters, and don't be afraid to take risks on sleepers. Be afraid to take risks on risky players.
6) Allegiances-Lose 'em.
How can you be a 'true' Ravens, Broncos, Cowboys, etc.. fan if your a 'true fantasy football player'. I'll use myself as an example.
I'm a die-hard Ravens fan, but I love fantasy football almost as much. I've made the mistake several times in the past drafting the Ravens D/ST too early to make sure I got them, or reaching for Todd Heap, when he wasn't worthless. Am I too proud to have the Steelers D/ST or Ben Roethlisberger on my team. Trust me, it would suck to have to cheer for the Steelers to succeed, but I play fantasy to win. Fantasy Football is not an accessory. If you want your team accessories, go to NFLShop.com.
"PLAY TO WIN THE GAME"
7) FOProjections
Cheap Plug.
But here's a story.
Remember that magical night in Vegas I spent. Well, by chance, I was with 5 members of that league. One happened to be our other blogger, Dan. I'm not surprised he hasn't mentioned it. He didn't speak to me for weeks, and literally cried when handing over our league trophy, but that's not what's important.
We know what we're talking about. It's not a coincidence we were in the finals. We've been in the same league for 5 years, and for 4 years one of us has won it, the other I lost in the Finals after a 1 loss regular season.
We will give you more projections and sleepers up until draft day, and help you dominate your waiver wire during the season.
The e-mail box is always open, and we're hoping to get the Ask The Experts Feature rolling every Sunday and Monday before games. We'll offer Start 'em, Sit 'em advice, and everything else throughout the season.
Good Luck with your drafts, but hopefully you won't need it.
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