Will you be the one to survive? One of the most interesting things to get involved in throughout NFL seasons are survivor pools. For those of you who are unfamiliar, it is a pool in which you select one NFL team to win each week as you attempt to "survive" through the NFL season without picking a team that loses that given week. The catch is that once you select a team, you can no longer pick that team again for the rest of the season. So, needless to say, there is a lot of down the road planning and strategy involved in not wasting all the elite teams at the start.
Eventually, you will have to make a couple of risky picks on teams that are facing competitors of similar talent. I do not suggest that you make a risky pick in week one. There is so much uncertainty coming into every season that you really can't get a strong feel for how good (or bad) a team is going to be until at least week three. So week 1, especially, is a week in which you want to generally pick a team who is considerably superior to the opponent they are facing that week so as to minimize risk and give yourself, hopefully, a week or two to make better evaluations of teams you want to lean on, or pick on more importantly, for the 2009-2010 season.
Still, if your a risk taker, as I often am, you may want to make a risky pick right off the bat. So this week I will offer my safe pick as well as a risky pick in order to give you a couple of options to choose from.
The Safe Pick- The New Orleans Saints over The Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions will not go 0-16 this season. However, you can be assured they are not going to win week 1 against the Saints. The Saints will likely be without Pierre Thomas for this week and Reggie Bush, as well, has not been entirely healthy throughout this preseason. Regardless, this offense- and this team- is about Drew Brees and his magical arm and the lions will not be able to stop Brees from throwing for 400+ yards and 3td's on the way to a blowout win. Mike Bell (a fantasy sleeper this week!) will be able to gain enough yards on the ground to keep the Lions D off balance but even in the absence of a running game, the passing game will prove to be more than enough.
This game will, undoubtedly, turn into somewhat of a shootout in which the Lions offense- though blessed with some young offensive playmakers-will not be able to keep up. In the likely event of a shootout, Kevin Smith will be taken out of the mix, as a runner, earlier and be forced to primarily serve as a security blanket for the Rookie QB, Stafford. Furthermore, Stafford will be under constant duress throughout the game as the Saints talented duo of pass rushers- Will Smith and Charles Grant- will be able to play the pass and therefore gear up to rush the passer. Calvin Johnson will have a hug day- and probably score a touchdown or two- but the Saint possess enough talented defensive backs to limit the production of the other wide receivers and probably pick off a pass or two, in the process, to stop any chances of the Lions mounting a comeback from the early deficit that the Saints offense will undoubtedly put them in.
The Saints are a safe play, but they are also not a team that you will regret wasting early as they play in one of the toughest divisions and therefore have less favorable matchups throughout the season. So pick the Saints and save your risky picks for another day.
The Risky Pick: The Seattle Seahawks over The St. Louis Rams
This stands as a risky pick because of the fact that the Seahawks were a 4-12 team last year. But that was not a true representation of the talent they have on their roster and, truth be told, I think they might win the NFC West this year. Matt Hasselbeck is primed for a comeback year now that he has a promising stable of receiving options lead by TJ Houshmandzadeh and John Carlson. They also will have an improved run game this year lead by Julius Jones and CO. Most importantly, the defense is vastly underrated with a strong front four; possibly the best collection of young LB's in the league; and a serviceable secondary lead by the ballhawking Marcus Trufant.
On the other hand, the Rams are a team that does not figure to improve much upon last years record. Marc Bulger is back, but all indications are that his best years have long passed him by. The offensive line has been bolstered, which means that Steven Jackson should be in for a strong bounce back year. But given that the Seahawks front seven figures to be the strength of their defense this season- the fact that Mr. Jackson will constantly be facing 8 man fronts with little hope that Bulger will be able to make the Seahawks pay for gearing up to stop the run. Finally, the Rams defense lacks difference makers and sports one of the worst secondary's in the league.
Expect a big day for Hasselbeck and expect the Seahawks to win in a rout.
Eventually, you will have to make a couple of risky picks on teams that are facing competitors of similar talent. I do not suggest that you make a risky pick in week one. There is so much uncertainty coming into every season that you really can't get a strong feel for how good (or bad) a team is going to be until at least week three. So week 1, especially, is a week in which you want to generally pick a team who is considerably superior to the opponent they are facing that week so as to minimize risk and give yourself, hopefully, a week or two to make better evaluations of teams you want to lean on, or pick on more importantly, for the 2009-2010 season.
Still, if your a risk taker, as I often am, you may want to make a risky pick right off the bat. So this week I will offer my safe pick as well as a risky pick in order to give you a couple of options to choose from.
The Safe Pick- The New Orleans Saints over The Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions will not go 0-16 this season. However, you can be assured they are not going to win week 1 against the Saints. The Saints will likely be without Pierre Thomas for this week and Reggie Bush, as well, has not been entirely healthy throughout this preseason. Regardless, this offense- and this team- is about Drew Brees and his magical arm and the lions will not be able to stop Brees from throwing for 400+ yards and 3td's on the way to a blowout win. Mike Bell (a fantasy sleeper this week!) will be able to gain enough yards on the ground to keep the Lions D off balance but even in the absence of a running game, the passing game will prove to be more than enough.
This game will, undoubtedly, turn into somewhat of a shootout in which the Lions offense- though blessed with some young offensive playmakers-will not be able to keep up. In the likely event of a shootout, Kevin Smith will be taken out of the mix, as a runner, earlier and be forced to primarily serve as a security blanket for the Rookie QB, Stafford. Furthermore, Stafford will be under constant duress throughout the game as the Saints talented duo of pass rushers- Will Smith and Charles Grant- will be able to play the pass and therefore gear up to rush the passer. Calvin Johnson will have a hug day- and probably score a touchdown or two- but the Saint possess enough talented defensive backs to limit the production of the other wide receivers and probably pick off a pass or two, in the process, to stop any chances of the Lions mounting a comeback from the early deficit that the Saints offense will undoubtedly put them in.
The Saints are a safe play, but they are also not a team that you will regret wasting early as they play in one of the toughest divisions and therefore have less favorable matchups throughout the season. So pick the Saints and save your risky picks for another day.
The Risky Pick: The Seattle Seahawks over The St. Louis Rams
This stands as a risky pick because of the fact that the Seahawks were a 4-12 team last year. But that was not a true representation of the talent they have on their roster and, truth be told, I think they might win the NFC West this year. Matt Hasselbeck is primed for a comeback year now that he has a promising stable of receiving options lead by TJ Houshmandzadeh and John Carlson. They also will have an improved run game this year lead by Julius Jones and CO. Most importantly, the defense is vastly underrated with a strong front four; possibly the best collection of young LB's in the league; and a serviceable secondary lead by the ballhawking Marcus Trufant.
On the other hand, the Rams are a team that does not figure to improve much upon last years record. Marc Bulger is back, but all indications are that his best years have long passed him by. The offensive line has been bolstered, which means that Steven Jackson should be in for a strong bounce back year. But given that the Seahawks front seven figures to be the strength of their defense this season- the fact that Mr. Jackson will constantly be facing 8 man fronts with little hope that Bulger will be able to make the Seahawks pay for gearing up to stop the run. Finally, the Rams defense lacks difference makers and sports one of the worst secondary's in the league.
Expect a big day for Hasselbeck and expect the Seahawks to win in a rout.
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