So we are two weeks into the fantasy football season and reality might be starting to set in that your team is not as infallible as you boldly declared at the end of your fantasy draft. Some of your players may be seriously under-performing; Injuries may be quickly piling up; running back time shares may be taking shape; wide receivers may not be getting targeted as much as expected: whatever the case, it is an unfortunate characteristic of fantasy football and your ability to effectively deal with these unexpected situations will undoubtedly determine whether you can still reach your goal of winning your fantasy league.
In past years, I have mostly been able to avoid these unfortunate circumstances. However, this year, has not been the case. In my most important money league (a longtime keeper league), I have been dealing with a rash of injuries which have seriously damaged my depth and caused me to start out the year 1-1. Players on my team who fall into the category of any of the above situations include Pierre Thomas, Knowshon Moreno, Jerrious Norwood, Steve Slaton, Kevin Walter, Lance Moore and Roy Williams. If I didn't have Adrian Peterson on my team, I would be 0-2 and seriously be doubting my ability to even make the league playoffs- this would be a huge blow considering I haven't finished lower than 2nd in this 12 team league in the past four years. Regardless, there is some panic on team Dan, and I'm sure many of you out there can sympathize with my situation as many of you are dealing with various similar situations of your own.
Regardless of your fantasy plight, it is important not to overreact and make a series of haste moves that involves you dropping several quality players who may help you when it really counts- the playoffs. I remember last year, when I was quick to dump Lions RB Kevin Smith four weeks into the season because he was involved in a time share with Rudi Johnson and the Lions were sporting a less than effective run game. Needless to say, he really came on during the second half of the season and very well could have been the difference in winning a championship (I finished second in the league).
What I want to do is give you (the fantasy player) some tips on dealing with early season struggles and more importantly avoiding situations that could cause you to drop or trade away under-performing players while making sound waiver wire pickups that will help to minimize the damage, in the short term, until your bellcow players round into their expected form.
1. Be conservative with the waiver wire- as I alluded to above, you don't want to drop quality players who, for one reason or another, have not been performing as expected. Yes, there are players who are simply not who we thought they were and, conversely, there are players, on the waiver wire, who are for real and should be picked up immediately. However, the first 2-4 weeks are always marked with players who unexpectedly blow up only to have little fantasy impact for the rest of the season. If you aggressively look to pick up players based off of small sample size statistical outbursts, you could be setting yourself up for playing a dangerous game of constantly starting players 1 game too late. Most importantly, before picking up a player, look at his schedule over the next four weeks in order to help determine if that player can sustain his play. I cannot stress how important matchups are as a good matchup can make a bad player look like Adrian Peterson and, conversely, a bad matchup can make Adrian Peterson look like, well, a bad player.
2. Aggressively look for buy-low opportunities via trade- this is always the best time to take advantage of other league owners who are already fed up with the fact that their high draft pick is barely putting up enough points to be worthy of keeping him on his bench- let alone confidently putting him in the starting lineup. Players who fit this bill (for various reasons) include Matt Forte, Steve Slaton, Pierre Thomas, LaDainian Tomlinson, Greg Jennings, Terrell Owens, TJ Houshmandzadeh, Braylon Edwards, Eddie Royal, Anquan Boldin, Brandon Marshall, etc. Most of these players will bounce back and have big second half performances that average out the poor performances the first couple of weeks. Too underscore the importance of making quality buy-low trades: Two years ago, I traded Donte Stallworth (then on the Patriots scoring juggernaut) for a struggling Drew Brees. Stallworth had strung together a few big games over an otherwise inconsistent season and I decided to pursue trading for Brees who was leading the league in interceptions over the first half of season with about a third as many touchdown passes thrown- but I had realized he had strung together two straight good games and seemed to be pulling it together. After the trade, he went on to be the number one fantasy QB for the rest of the season and I won my fantasy league championship. Need anymore convincing about the potential impact of buy-low trades. It should also be inferred, from this column, that you should avoid being suckered into buy-low trades just because Fred Jackson (for example) has strung together a few nice games.
3. When times get rough lean on your best players- It sounds like I am stating the obvious, but seriously over-thinking can lead to some very regrettably decisions in which you bench the wrong players and start no-names who you think have good matchups. Example 1, week 1, Matt Schaub had a horrid game against the Jets which caused me to be convinced he wasn't healthy and had a bad week 2 matchup (against the Titans)- so I irrationally bench him. The result, he is the top performing fantasy QB and the other person I started performed so bad I'm not even going to mention his name- yep, fantasy football can make even the most informed look downright stupid sometimes. As well, at the flex, I picked up and started Michael Clayton cause I thought he had a good matchup against an undersized Bills secondary, Antonio Bryant was out (leaving Clayton at least in theory as their number 1) and Leftwich seemed to be capable of putting up yards and throwing TD passes. The result, Leftwich put up big numbers but failed to find Clayton. Those two decisions undoubtedly lead to a week 2 loss- seriously don't over-think things.
4. Most importantly- RELAX!- This is basically a summation of all the things described above, but seriously, it is a long season and there is plenty of time for certain players on your team to turn it around. The key is to make moves that will allow you to weather the storm and put you into a position to get into your fantasy league playoffs because once you get in it's a whole new season. DON'T, I REPEAT, DON'T drop players who could explode come weeks 14, 15, 16 and 17 just because they are performing atrociously in the interim. Be judicious, make sound moves, and most importantly trust your judgement that you exhibited during the draft on certain players because two weeks is far from a large enough sample size to offer evidence to the contrary.
Lastly, if any of you have questions regarding these matters involving fantasy strategy, or any others- leave comments below and we will promptly answer them!
No comments:
Post a Comment