Seymour Trade Analysis

Too Much Raider Hating!

Let me preface this by saying, ultimately, I think this is a bad deal for the Raiders and further shows the type of tunnel-vision approach they have been taking towards trying to assemble a winning team. This is a risky trade, for the Raiders, and recent history suggests they have not been overly shrewd in their evaluation of bringing in potential impact players. Nonetheless, the national media's perception of both the Patriots and the Raiders, as franchises, has seriously clouded many analysts' abilities to make sound determinations on the impact of this trade and, subsequently, has caused them to shell out these cookie-cutter weigh-in columns that all sing the same tune and lack much real analysis.

First off, just because this is a risky trade for the Raiders doesn't mean this is not a risky trade for the Patriots. Losing Seymour, on Defense, means that this team no longer has a player who seems to bring as much in terms of intangibles and leadership as they do in terms of production. For years, the Patriots defense has been marked by players (Bruski, Vrabal, Law, Harrison, and Seymour) who exemplify the so-called patriot way and help to raise the team to an elite status through intangibles and leadership.

Now, with the loss of Seymour, who do they have on defense who can fill that role? Adalius Thomas? Derrick Burgess? Shawn Springs? I wouldn't count on it. They have a couple of young emerging impact players in Wilfork, Warren, Mayo and Merriweather. Maybe Belicheck figured they have learned enough of the said Patriot way, from the old guys, and are now ready to emerge as the new wave of leaders...

That could be true, but it's still a considerable gamble, even for Belicheck, and I think his arrogance- as in his belief the effectiveness of his defense is not about the players, it's about the system- could very well cost them a chance at a ring this season.

I understand and generally agree with this mode of front office thinking which is to err on the side of dumping a player a year too early as opposed to getting rid of him a year too late. After all, I am an Oakland A's fan and there is no GM who wholeheartedly follows this approach more then Billy Beane.

So from the standpoint of ultimately receiving more value then they gave up, I applaud the Patriots. The pick will likely be in the top 20 picks, and stands a decent chance of being in the top 10- this will probably be the pick in which they find Tom Brady's replacement but that's another story.

But still, is winning a trade, in a vacuum, still a win if it potentially could cost you the chance to win the Super Bowl in 2009? Considering how many teams are primed to contend for the SB I am not sure the Brady/Moss tandem can wreak enough havoc to get past everyone. Teams have a better understanding of how to limit Moss, and more importantly, have a clear understanding that the Patriots line is weak and the only way to stop Brady is to constantly pressure and hit him. This year, they will need a super bowl caliber defense to win it all; with the loss of Seymour I'm not sure they have the talent to field one. If that is the case, this trade is a loss for the Patriots considering the Brady/Moss window may be starting to close...

Now, for the Raiders, there is no doubt that this trade represents Al Davis' riskiest move in recent memory and, let's face it, the Patriots received better value. But that does not mean that it may not have a profound impact in a way that ultimately justifies the acquisition.

Look, the Raiders need to make considerable progress this year. At worse- with or without Seymour- this season needed to result in, at worst, a 7-9 record or else serious mayhem (yes, it can get worse in Raiderland) would start to unfold.

I have always argued against the Raiders previous bold moves because Mr. Davis clearly got caught up in trying to acquire the superstar skill position player (Moss and Hall) while overlooking the holes along the offensive and defensive lines. With this trade, Mr. Davis has finally acquired a player who not only helps to shore up our biggest weakness (stopping the run), but also a player who can make other players' jobs easier and, thus, increase the chances that more players will have strong years. The ripple effect that is created by adding Seymour to the defensive line means so many potential things, that is near impossible to predict his effect until we actually see it.

His presence means that Tommy Kelly will never face double teams. The last time that was the case, he had Warren Sapp next to him and, as a result, looked to be emerging as one of the elite one-gap DT's in the league. His presence means that Trevor Scott moves back to his more ideal role as a pass-rush specialist where he is very capable of collecting 7-10 sacks (he had 5 in that role as a rookie) while not being forced into situations where he is getting pounded on running plays. His presence means that the Raiders linebackers- who are talented and fast, but undersized- will have to worry less about taking on blockers, and more about flowing to the ball and making the tackle. And finally, for a Raiders defense that has talent, but is young, he hopefully brings a professional demeanor and the type of "patriots way" intangibles that will help to rise this defense above its collective means.

Of course, he could get injured or just not show up at all and then all these hypothetical gains are rendered moot. And that considerable risk- or the fact that this situation has great potential to be a 1 year thing- is why I don't, ultimately, like this trade for the Raiders. But at least I can take the time to weigh the possible pro's and con's instead of spewing out a biased opinion because we are dealing with a trade involving the Raiders and the Patriots.

The risk and unknown, for both the Raiders and Patriots, involved in this trade is too significant for anyone to confidently say that either team made the right decision to make this deal. The Patriots received better value, yes. But, at this point, we will have no idea who will benefit more from this trade and will continue to not know until the 2009-2010 season is in the books.