MNF Week 1 Handicapping

That's the way to start off the season, with a 3-0 Sunday sweep and +25units of Profit. We quickly erased the 0-2(-11dime) Thursday start.

Let's take a look at yesterday's action:
Min (-4) covers at Cleveland
--You have to give Cleveland credit, they made you sweat until the 3rd quarter. The fact is Cleveland is a bad football team. Their defense is going to get abused all season, and Brady Quinn is going to take a while to develop into a formidable quarterback. The Vikings are going to be one of the more overrated teams this year solely b/c of Brett Favre. Personally, I think Brett is beyond washed up, and against good defenses the Vikings will suffer. If you find a team that can stop the run, and has a formidable offense--New York G, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Tennessee, and San Diego to name a few--Minnesota won't be able to compete with. Watch for inflated Vikings lines.

Baltimore (-12.5) covers vs. Kansas City
--Sometimes its better to be lucky than good, this time was a case of being lucky AND good. This was a nice break, to get these last second scores that actually go in your favor. The Chiefs had no business being in that game, The Ravens more than doubled their yards and TOP. The Ravens special teams blew it--missed FG and blocked punt for a KC TD. The Ravens set a franchise record 501 yards of offense, led by a surprising 43 pass attempts from Joe Flacco. That shouldn't have been surprising if your paying attention. This Ravens offense will be good this year and efficient. The running game is strong--Ray Rice and McGahee look better-- and they leave themselves manageable 3rd downs. I expect Flacco to throw it 30-35times a game. The Chiefs front 7 is better than expected, and if they could find a running game--this won't be a terrible football team. Todd Haley will make this a dangerous team come November, December.

6pt teaser (Ind + Atl) cover.
--Why tease?
It's not a method I use often--because if both teams cover--the odds are like 70% you would have won both games at their original spreads.

I was worried about the Colts being in a dogfight, but I was confident in the Colts to win their home opener. Jacksonville was missing several pieces in their starting defense, and didn't think they had the outside weapons to beat the Colts. I expect the Colts to focus on stopping MJD, but teams that have better QB play and playmakers at WR/TE can be a big matchup problem for the Colts. The Colts are an interesting team to me, I'm not as high on them as most, but; I'm not high on that whole division.

Tonights Play
--Biggest Play of the Season
15 dimes New England Patriots -10.5

Season
3-2 (+14 dimes)