MNF Handicapping

What a Sunday! I drop my biggest play, but still end up killing the books yesterday to the tune of 6-1. Lions get the outright win, just as I expected. All 3 teams in my teaser covered on their own, but never complain about winning plays. The Ravens absolutely dominated that game start to finish, like I knew they would. The Bears pull it out late, and the Colts game was never in doubt. We never even sweated yesterday on those picks. The Titans game was a bad read. The Titans defense is not as good as I thought they were, and I have to give Credit to Sanchez. Considering they have a rookie QB and Head Coach, and 3 Baltimore Ravens--they definitely look like they can be the 2008 Baltimore Ravens.

Sunday Total 6-1 (+35dimes)

MNF:
This point spread is a little too high. The Panthers are desperate, and all Jake Delhomme has to do is get the ball to Steve Smith and the hand the ball of the DeAngelo Williams. Don't get pretty out there, and the Panthers should have no problem moving the ball tonight.

5dime parlay: Carolina (+8.5) and the Under (48.5)

SNF Handicapping

10dimes- Colts +3

NFL Handicapping Week 3

Big Sunday ahead. I love this card, hence, the amount of action. I normally don't make this many plays, but I absolutely love the games this Sunday.

I'll have my play on SNF posted later tomorrow.

Good luck everyone!

25dimes- Tenn +2.5 --Classic case of the media darlings against a hungry 0-2 team. Tenn will be the first real test for Sanchez, and Rex Ryan is cocky, maybe overconfident. Fischer will bring out all the stops.
10dimes- Bears -2.5 --Seattle has tons of injuries on offense and defense. Cutler outduels Seneca Wallace
10dimes- Ravens -13 --Ravens Defense will make a point tomorrow. 31-10 Ravens
10dimes- 6pt Teaser- NY Giants (-.5) and Saints (even)
10dimes- 6pt Teaser- NY Giants (-.5) and Packers (-.5)
5dimes- Lions ML +250 --Small play here. Call it a hunch, but the Redskins are the perfect recipe for the Lions. They will play this game like their Superbowl, against one of the worst offenses in the NFL.

Fantasy Football Strategy

So we are two weeks into the fantasy football season and reality might be starting to set in that your team is not as infallible as you boldly declared at the end of your fantasy draft. Some of your players may be seriously under-performing; Injuries may be quickly piling up; running back time shares may be taking shape; wide receivers may not be getting targeted as much as expected: whatever the case, it is an unfortunate characteristic of fantasy football and your ability to effectively deal with these unexpected situations will undoubtedly determine whether you can still reach your goal of winning your fantasy league.

In past years, I have mostly been able to avoid these unfortunate circumstances. However, this year, has not been the case. In my most important money league (a longtime keeper league), I have been dealing with a rash of injuries which have seriously damaged my depth and caused me to start out the year 1-1. Players on my team who fall into the category of any of the above situations include Pierre Thomas, Knowshon Moreno, Jerrious Norwood, Steve Slaton, Kevin Walter, Lance Moore and Roy Williams. If I didn't have Adrian Peterson on my team, I would be 0-2 and seriously be doubting my ability to even make the league playoffs- this would be a huge blow considering I haven't finished lower than 2nd in this 12 team league in the past four years. Regardless, there is some panic on team Dan, and I'm sure many of you out there can sympathize with my situation as many of you are dealing with various similar situations of your own.

Regardless of your fantasy plight, it is important not to overreact and make a series of haste moves that involves you dropping several quality players who may help you when it really counts- the playoffs. I remember last year, when I was quick to dump Lions RB Kevin Smith four weeks into the season because he was involved in a time share with Rudi Johnson and the Lions were sporting a less than effective run game. Needless to say, he really came on during the second half of the season and very well could have been the difference in winning a championship (I finished second in the league).

What I want to do is give you (the fantasy player) some tips on dealing with early season struggles and more importantly avoiding situations that could cause you to drop or trade away under-performing players while making sound waiver wire pickups that will help to minimize the damage, in the short term, until your bellcow players round into their expected form.

1. Be conservative with the waiver wire- as I alluded to above, you don't want to drop quality players who, for one reason or another, have not been performing as expected. Yes, there are players who are simply not who we thought they were and, conversely, there are players, on the waiver wire, who are for real and should be picked up immediately. However, the first 2-4 weeks are always marked with players who unexpectedly blow up only to have little fantasy impact for the rest of the season. If you aggressively look to pick up players based off of small sample size statistical outbursts, you could be setting yourself up for playing a dangerous game of constantly starting players 1 game too late. Most importantly, before picking up a player, look at his schedule over the next four weeks in order to help determine if that player can sustain his play. I cannot stress how important matchups are as a good matchup can make a bad player look like Adrian Peterson and, conversely, a bad matchup can make Adrian Peterson look like, well, a bad player.

2. Aggressively look for buy-low opportunities via trade- this is always the best time to take advantage of other league owners who are already fed up with the fact that their high draft pick is barely putting up enough points to be worthy of keeping him on his bench- let alone confidently putting him in the starting lineup. Players who fit this bill (for various reasons) include Matt Forte, Steve Slaton, Pierre Thomas, LaDainian Tomlinson, Greg Jennings, Terrell Owens, TJ Houshmandzadeh, Braylon Edwards, Eddie Royal, Anquan Boldin, Brandon Marshall, etc. Most of these players will bounce back and have big second half performances that average out the poor performances the first couple of weeks. Too underscore the importance of making quality buy-low trades: Two years ago, I traded Donte Stallworth (then on the Patriots scoring juggernaut) for a struggling Drew Brees. Stallworth had strung together a few big games over an otherwise inconsistent season and I decided to pursue trading for Brees who was leading the league in interceptions over the first half of season with about a third as many touchdown passes thrown- but I had realized he had strung together two straight good games and seemed to be pulling it together. After the trade, he went on to be the number one fantasy QB for the rest of the season and I won my fantasy league championship. Need anymore convincing about the potential impact of buy-low trades. It should also be inferred, from this column, that you should avoid being suckered into buy-low trades just because Fred Jackson (for example) has strung together a few nice games.

3. When times get rough lean on your best players- It sounds like I am stating the obvious, but seriously over-thinking can lead to some very regrettably decisions in which you bench the wrong players and start no-names who you think have good matchups. Example 1, week 1, Matt Schaub had a horrid game against the Jets which caused me to be convinced he wasn't healthy and had a bad week 2 matchup (against the Titans)- so I irrationally bench him. The result, he is the top performing fantasy QB and the other person I started performed so bad I'm not even going to mention his name- yep, fantasy football can make even the most informed look downright stupid sometimes. As well, at the flex, I picked up and started Michael Clayton cause I thought he had a good matchup against an undersized Bills secondary, Antonio Bryant was out (leaving Clayton at least in theory as their number 1) and Leftwich seemed to be capable of putting up yards and throwing TD passes. The result, Leftwich put up big numbers but failed to find Clayton. Those two decisions undoubtedly lead to a week 2 loss- seriously don't over-think things.

4. Most importantly- RELAX!- This is basically a summation of all the things described above, but seriously, it is a long season and there is plenty of time for certain players on your team to turn it around. The key is to make moves that will allow you to weather the storm and put you into a position to get into your fantasy league playoffs because once you get in it's a whole new season. DON'T, I REPEAT, DON'T drop players who could explode come weeks 14, 15, 16 and 17 just because they are performing atrociously in the interim. Be judicious, make sound moves, and most importantly trust your judgement that you exhibited during the draft on certain players because two weeks is far from a large enough sample size to offer evidence to the contrary.

Lastly, if any of you have questions regarding these matters involving fantasy strategy, or any others- leave comments below and we will promptly answer them!

Week 2 Power Rankings

1 New York Giants 2-0 So much for missing Plaxico Burress, Steve Smith and Mario Manningham are becoming very reliable targets for Eli Manning.
2 New Orleans Saints 2-0 It's one thing to light up the Lions, quite another to do it to the Eagles. I believe.
3 Atlanta Falcons 2-0 Losing Peria Jerry for the season hurts, but they still have one of the most exciting offenses in the NFL, but the defense is green.
4 Minnesota Vikings 2-0 I don't think Brett Favre can win this team a game when it counts. But they have the most dangerous player in football who can.
5 Baltimore Ravens 2-0 I am starting to come around on Mike's team- the Ravens. Flacco is developing into an elite QB and the run game is better than ever. However, I continue to question whether this defense is still elite.
6 Pittsburgh Steelers 1-1 Due to a Jeff Reed melt down, they are not 2-0. More worrysome, however, is the fact that they have no run game.
7 Indianapolis Colts 2-0 If the Colts have any QB other than Manning, outside of Brees, they are at best an 8-8 team. The Defense is porous and Manning has limited offensive weapons. But, bottom line, they are 2-0.
8 New York Jets 2-0 One of the best defenses in football, a solid run game and a QB who knows how to minimize mistakes and win games. This team is for real.
9 Philadelphia Eagles 1-1 Is New Orleans really that good, or is Philly not as good as we thought?
10 San Diego Chargers 1-1 Tough loss to the Ravens. The run game has not been effective, the defense just isn't strong and they have one of the worst coaches in football. Right now, they are not a SB contender.
11 San Francisco 49ers 2-0 The 49ers are quietly becoming a good football team.
12 Dallas Cowboys 1-1 Well the Cowboys blew their last game in the old stadium, and Tony Romo blew their debut in the new palace.
13 New England Patriots 1-1 Brady is human. Moss looked uninterested in the game. The defense is no longer elite. This could be trouble.
14 Chicago Bears 1-1 Jeff Reed helped them, but Jay Cutler responded this week.
15 Green Bay Packers 1-1 Losing to the Bengals at home? It's not like they were looking ahead to the Rams next week.
16 Cincinnati Bengals 1-1 The Bengals should be 2-0. Benson is a beast (I'm going to let that set in for a second. The defense is stout. But Palmer needs to minimize mistakes.
17 Arizona Cardinals 1-1 There's the Cardinals offense we know.
18 Houston Texans 1-1 Great bounce back effort for Schaub and the offense. Slaton should start to get going too. But this defense has to start stopping people.
19 Tennessee Titans 0-2 How do you lose when your RB puts up nearly 300 yards of offense? Maybe this defense really does miss Haynesworth.
20 Buffalo Bills 1-1 Fred Jackson is blowing up. If Trent Edwards can continue to develop into a quality starting QB, we could be looking at a borderline playoff team. But I need to see more.
21 Denver Broncos 2-0 Despite the record, neither mike nor I are convinced yet. If Russell plays well and they still beat the Raiders next week, then I may come around.
22 Oakland Raiders 1-1 It's all about Russell and the passing game. The defense is proving to be a formidable unit and they have the ingrediants for a top rushing attack. But Russell has to make the developmental jump.
23 Miami Dolphins 0-2 Fought hard in a loss to the Colts. Still, this team cannot consistently move the ball through the air and their rushing effectiveness was more attributable to a bad Colts run D.
24 Seattle Seahawks 1-1 Another season, another Hasselbeck injury.
25 Washington Redskins 0-2 Would I be surprised to see the Lions pull of the upset Sunday? No.
26 Carolina Panthers 0-2 Jake Delhomme survived without 5 turnovers, that was a victory in itself
27 Jacksonville Jaguars 0-2 MJD seems to be the only bright spot on this team. This is FO projections team most likely to move to LA in the next two years.
28 Kansas City Chiefs 0-2 They couldn't beat the Raiders despite gaining substantially more yards on offense and JaMarcus Russell turning in his worst game as a pro. Turnovers proved to be the difference in this game.
29 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0-2 This team has the tools to be a spoiler, but they are a few years away from being a contender.
30 Detroit Lions 0-2 The Lions are going to win 2 games this year.
31 Cleveland Browns 0-2 The clock is ticking for Brady Quinn. One more bad game and Derek Anderson might be guy from here on out. FO Projections thinks that would be a good call.
32 St. Louis Rams 0-2 It's a shame Steven Jackson is rotting away the prime of his career here.

2010 NFL Draft

* Denotes Junior
** Denontes Redshirt Sophomore

Quarterback Rankings


1. Sam Bradford Oklahoma*- top 10


2. Jevan Snead Ole Miss*- top 15


3. Jimmy Clausen Notre* Dame- top 15


4. Colt McCoy Texas-Round 1


5. Jake Locker* Washington- Round 2


6. Tony Pike Cincinnati- Round 2


7. Tim Tebow Florida- Round 1 (apparent discrepancy means I don't like him but think he will go in the 1st round)


8. Jarrett Brown West Virginia- Round 3-4


9. Tim Hiller Western Michigan- Round 4-5


10. Zach Robinson Oklahoma State- Round 4-5





Runningback


1. CJ Spiller* Clemson- Round 1


2. Jonathan Dwyer* Georgia Tech- Round 1


3. Javhid Best Cal- Round 1


4. Evan Royster* Penn State- Round 1


5. DeMarco Murray* Oklahoma- Round 2


6. Joe McKnight* USC- Round 2


7. Charles Scott LSU- Round 3


8. Greg Cooper* Miami- Round 3


9. Kendall Hunter* Oklahoma State- Round 3


10. Toby Gerhart Stanford- Round 4-5





Wide Receiver


1. Dez Bryant* Oklahoma State- Top 15


2. Arrelious Benn* Illinois- Top 15


3. Michael Crabtree Texas Tech- Top 15 (based off prediction that he will not sign with SF)


4. Demaryius Thomas* Georgia Tech- Round 1


5. Damien Williams* USC- Round 1-2


6. Eric Decker Minnesota- Round 2


7. Jacoby Ford Clemson- Round 2-3


8. Jordan Shipley Texas- Round 3


9. Brandon LaFell LSU- Round 3


10. Mardy Gilyard Cincinnati- Round 3


11. Terrence Tolliver* LSU- Round 2-4


12. Desmon Briscoe* Kansas- Round 2-4


13. Mike Williams Syracuse- Round 4


14. Mark Dell* Michigan State- Round 2-4


15. Golden Tate* Notre Dame- Round 4





Tight End


1. Jermaine Gresham Oklahoma- Round 1-2


2. Rob Gronkowski* Arizona- Round 1-2


3. Anthony McCoy USC- Round 2-3


4. Ed Dickson Oregon- Round 3-4


5. Dennis Pitta BYU- Round 3-4





Offensive Tackle


1. Russell Okung Oklahoma State- Top 15


2. Trent Williams Oklahoma- Top 15


3. Brian Buluga* Iowa- Top 15


4. Anthony Davis* Rutgers- Round 1


5. Selvish Capers West Virginia- Round 1


6. Bruce Campbell* Maryland- Round 1


7. Gabe Carimi* Wisconsin- Round 1


8. Charles Brown USC- Round 2


9. Ciron Black LSU- Round 2


10. Jake Fox Miami- Round 2


11. Sam Young Notre Dame- Round 2-3


12. Kyle Calloway Iowa- Round 3


13. Kyle Ulatoski Texas- Round 3


14. Jarriel King* South Carolina- Round 3


15. Kyle Hix* Texas- Round 3





Offensive Guard


1. Mike Johnson Alabama- Round 2-3


2. Mike Pouncey* Florida- Round 2-3


3. John Asamoah Illinois- Round 3


4. Thomas Austin Clemson- Round 3


5. Mitch Petrus Arkansas- Round 3-4





Offensive Center


1. Kristofer O'Dowd* USC- Round 1-2


2. Matt Tennant Boston College- Round 2


3. John Estes Hawaii- Round 3


4. J.D. Walton Baylor- Round 3-4


5. Stefen Wisniewski* Penn State- Round 3-4





Defensive End


1. Carlos Dunlap* Florida- Top 10


2. Derrick Morgan* Georgia Tech- Top 15


3. Greg Hardy Ole Miss- Round 1


4. Everson Griffen* USC- Round 1-2


5. Cameron Heyward* Ohio State- Round 1-2


6. Greg Romeus* Pittsburgh- Round 1-2


7. Corey Wooten Northwestern- Round 1-2


8. Brandon Graham Michigan- Round 2-3


9. C.J. Wilson Eastern Carolina- Round 3


10. Brandon Lang Troy- Round 3-4





Defensive Tackle


1. Ndamukong Suh Nebraska- Top 10


2. Gerald McCoy* Oklahoma- Top 10


3. Terrence Cody Alabama- Round 1-2


4. Marvin Austin* North Carolina- Round 1-2


5. Arthur Rhodes Syracuse- Round 1-2


6. Allen Bailey* Miami- Round 1-2


7. Brian Price* UCLA- Round 1-2


8. Lawrence Marsh* Florida- Round 2


9. Stephen Paea* Oregon State- Round 2-3


10. Phil Taylor* Baylor-Round 2-3





Outside Linebacker


1. Sean Weatherspoon Missouri- Round 1


2. George Selvie South Florida- Round 1-2


3. Travis Lewis** Oklahoma- Round 1-2


4. Sergio Kindle Texas- Round 2


5. Ricky Sapp Clemson- Round 2


6. Jerry Hughes TCU- Round 3


7. Justin Cole San Jose State- Round 3


8. Eric Norwood South Carolina- Round 3


9. A.J. Edds* Iowa- Round 3-4


10. Perry Riley LSU- Round 3-4





Inside Linebacker


1. Brandon Spikes Florida- Round 1


2. Rolando McClain* Alabama- Round 1


3. Greg Jones* Michigan State- Round 2


4. Quan Sturdivant* North Carolina- Round 2-3


5. Sean Lee Penn State- Round 3


6. Daryl Washington TCU- Round 3-4


7. Pat Angerer Iowa- Round 3-4


8. Obi Ezeh* Michigan- Round 3-4


9. Brian Smith* Notre Dame- Round 4


10. Casey Matthews* Oregon- Round 4





Cornerback


1. Joe Haden* Florida- Round 1


2. Patrick Robinson Florida State- Round 1


3. Ras-I Dowling* Virginia- Round 1


4. Syd'Quan Thompson Cal- Round 2


5. Trevard Lindley Kentucky- Round 2


6. Dominique Frank* Oklahoma- Round 2


7. Donavan Warren* Michigan- Round 2


8. Brandon Ghee Wake Forest- Round 2-3


9. Perish Cox Oklahoma State- Round 3


10. Javier Arenas Alabama- Round 3-4





Free Safety


1. Eric Berry* Tennessee- Top 5


2. Morgan Burnett* Georgia Tech- Round 1-2


3. Major Wright* Florida- Round 3


4. Nate Allen South Florida- Round 3-4


5. Josh Pinkard USC- Round 3-4





Strong Safety


1. Taylor Mays USC- Top 15


2. Reshad Jones* Georgia- Round 1-2


3. Chad Jones* LSU- Round 2


4. Darrell Stuckey* Kansas- Round 2-3


5. Kam Chancellor Virginia Tech- Round 3-4

Week 2 MNF

Another bad mis-read on the Patriots cost me a losing day. I'll admit that I'm overrating them, and the public read the game right moving the line from Patriots -5.5 down to -3. I thought the Steelers were the better team, and I defend that play. Jeff Reed usually doesn't miss, and he had 2 make-able field goals that were shanked. It happens, you get good and bad breaks.

MNF Handicapping
10dimes- Colts (-3), (Buy the hook if you need to)
5dimes- Under 42

2009 Total:
5-5 (-6.75 dimes)

Week 2 NFL Handicapping

We give back a lot of our winnings from Sunday's 3-0 sweep with a bad call on the New England Patriots on Monday Night. It was a misread on both sides. Fred Jackson absolutely carried the Bills offense, and the Pats looked very average on both sides of the ball until Brady went circa 2007 in the last minutes of the game.


Let's build back up that bankroll with another big Sunday.


10dimes-New Orleans Saints (-1). The Eagles won't be able to be compete in a shootout with New Orleans without Donovan McNabb on the field.

10dimes-Pittsburgh Steelers (-3). You thought Jay Cutler looked bad against Green Bay's defense, Pittsburgh's defense, even without #43, will make it tough for the Bears.


10dimes-New England Patriots (-3.5). Sure the Patriots looked vunerable on defense, and sluggish on offense for 55minutes on Monday. But, you just don't trash talk the Patriots. The Pats make a statement here.


5dimes- New York Giants (+145). Small moneyline play here. The Giants are the most complete team in football, and we get good odds for them to pull it off outright.



2009 season totals:
3-3 (-2.5 dimes).

Week 1 Reviews: Fantasy Pickups

GO GET THEM!

Louis Murphy WR Oakland Raiders- He had 5 catches for 87 yards and a touchdown going against the Chargers on Monday night. As it stands right now, he is the most reliable wide receiver in the Raiders offense and has shown a decent rapport with Russell when no other wide out has. He should have scored two TD's but a truly horrible rule allowed the booth, upon review, to determine otherwise. Look, his fantasy relevance could be shortlived since, upon Chaz Schilens return in probably week 3 or 4, he will likely be relegated to slot receiver. But still, he's been reliable throughout preseason and the first regular season game, and Russell's strong arm means he can find Murphy deep 1 or 2 times a game, if Murphy continues to find ways to get open deep as he did in the first game.

Benjamin Watson TE New England Patriots- He caught 6 balls for 77 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Bills. I have been waiting for Watson to come around ever since he was drafted in the first round a couple years back. Watson may still have games where he is rarely targeted due to the fact that Brady likes to spread the ball around and they often go to 4 and 5 WR sets. But Watson is talented enough to split out as a WR, and the fact that he caught two TD's including the game winner means that Brady should have more confidence in looking to him in clutch moments or moments where he is under duress.

Joe Flacco QB Baltimore Ravens- Had three touchdown passes in a strong effort against the KC Chiefs. He may already have been drafted in your league. But if you are not in a deep league, and he is available, he should be picked up immediately and should continue to be a top 12 QB for the rest of the year.

Patrick Crayton WR Dallas Cowboys- Again, he is another player who is probably already unavailable on the waiver wire. However, if he is picked up he could develop into a very nice WR2 given the fact that he has Tony Romo at QB. He caught 4 balls for 135 yards and a TD so he offers nice big-play ability.

DON'T BUY IN YET

Robert Meachem and Deverey Henderson- Both players had huge games against a porous Detroit secondary that simply couldn't account for all the offensive options on the Saints offense. However, don't buy into Meachem and Henderson just yet for exactly that reason. Coming into the season, Colston, Bush, Moore, and shockey were all considered better fantasy options than Meachem and Henderson. Both offer big-play ability but the fact that Brees has so many options to work with means that both receivers could have big performances followed by multiple game stretches where they only catch 1 or 2 balls. If nothing else, this tempers the potential of other more reliable fantasy options like Colston, Bush, Shockey and Moore.

MNF Week 1 Handicapping

That's the way to start off the season, with a 3-0 Sunday sweep and +25units of Profit. We quickly erased the 0-2(-11dime) Thursday start.

Let's take a look at yesterday's action:
Min (-4) covers at Cleveland
--You have to give Cleveland credit, they made you sweat until the 3rd quarter. The fact is Cleveland is a bad football team. Their defense is going to get abused all season, and Brady Quinn is going to take a while to develop into a formidable quarterback. The Vikings are going to be one of the more overrated teams this year solely b/c of Brett Favre. Personally, I think Brett is beyond washed up, and against good defenses the Vikings will suffer. If you find a team that can stop the run, and has a formidable offense--New York G, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Tennessee, and San Diego to name a few--Minnesota won't be able to compete with. Watch for inflated Vikings lines.

Baltimore (-12.5) covers vs. Kansas City
--Sometimes its better to be lucky than good, this time was a case of being lucky AND good. This was a nice break, to get these last second scores that actually go in your favor. The Chiefs had no business being in that game, The Ravens more than doubled their yards and TOP. The Ravens special teams blew it--missed FG and blocked punt for a KC TD. The Ravens set a franchise record 501 yards of offense, led by a surprising 43 pass attempts from Joe Flacco. That shouldn't have been surprising if your paying attention. This Ravens offense will be good this year and efficient. The running game is strong--Ray Rice and McGahee look better-- and they leave themselves manageable 3rd downs. I expect Flacco to throw it 30-35times a game. The Chiefs front 7 is better than expected, and if they could find a running game--this won't be a terrible football team. Todd Haley will make this a dangerous team come November, December.

6pt teaser (Ind + Atl) cover.
--Why tease?
It's not a method I use often--because if both teams cover--the odds are like 70% you would have won both games at their original spreads.

I was worried about the Colts being in a dogfight, but I was confident in the Colts to win their home opener. Jacksonville was missing several pieces in their starting defense, and didn't think they had the outside weapons to beat the Colts. I expect the Colts to focus on stopping MJD, but teams that have better QB play and playmakers at WR/TE can be a big matchup problem for the Colts. The Colts are an interesting team to me, I'm not as high on them as most, but; I'm not high on that whole division.

Tonights Play
--Biggest Play of the Season
15 dimes New England Patriots -10.5

Season
3-2 (+14 dimes)

Week 1 NFL Handicapping

Sundays are back, and so is the opportunity to turn Sundays into payday. We dropped some money Monday, but there's no doubt in my mind we'll be on the winning when all is said and done this season. The most important thing is we never panic in a slump, and never get too confident on a streak, they key is smart money management. Gamblers always end up losing, because they place all their bankroll on a "lock" and it's gone. My philosophy is take the games week by week, and in the end--we'll have made some money.

The Dime Betting System Explain:
Let's say your maximum wager size is $200. Well, if I release a 100 dime play, then it should be a $200 wager. If I release a 50 dime play, it should be a $100 wager. Taking it one step further, if I release a 20 dime pick, it should be a $100 wager.

I love the Action on the Week 1 card here. I'll have my biggest play of the season for MNF tomorrow. Let's get rolling for today...

10dimes- Baltimore -12.5
10dimes- Minn -4
5 dimes-6pt Teaser- Indy (-.5) and Atlanta (+2)

Total for Season: -11 Dimes

Defensive Draft Prospects: Clemson vs. Georgia Tech

Tons of defensive playmakers in this game...

Clemson

Ricky Sapp DE- Did not factor into the game much as a pass rusher- not that that is unexpected given the unorthodox run offense which Georgia Tech uses. At 6'5 240, it is unlikely that Ricky Sapp will be able to hold up as a DE in the NFL; a transition to rush end in a 3-4 system is a more likely outcome for Sapp. Expect him to land somewhere in round 3 or 4 on draft day with a chance at round 2 in the event he pulls a 4.6 forty out of his ass during the combine or on his pro-day. A good looking player, build-wise, but I don't think the OLB transition will be an easy one for him.

Da'Quan Bowers DE NFL- At 6'4 280 Bowers is the real attraction along Clemson's D-Line. He is only a true Sophomore- so he will not be eligible for next year's draft. However, when he elects to come out next season, he will be a top 15 overall pick due to his prototypical size and the fact that he is equally adept at rushing the passer and stuffing the run.

DeAndre McDaniel SS- A converted LB, McDaniel had the biggest impact of any defensive player in the game- outside of Derrick Morgan- with 2 interceptions. At 6'1 210, he possesses good size and a 37 inch vertical leap allows him to out jump receivers and make plays on balls. If he can continue to learn the nuances of playing safety, he is a junior, he could make himself into a 2-3 round prospect. Right now he grades out as a round 4-5 guy but that could change pretty quickly if he continues to put up performances like he had against Georgia Tech.

Brandon Maye ILB- at 6'2 230 Maye is a redshirt soph. (draft eligible). He had a relatively rough game. Not in the sense that he made any critical mistakes on plays, but going back and watching the game over, he was consistently out of position due to missteps and keying in on the wrong players and, as a result, was easy to block. Again, he is only a soph. and clearly has strong physical attributes. But I doubt he will be able to hold up at MLB, in the NFL, and will probably have to make the switch to outside LB whenever he reaches the NFL. Right now I'd cautiously say he has a good chance of landing somewhere between rounds 3 and 5 whenever he comes out.

Crezdon Butler CB- Butler did not factor into the game much- again, because of the fact that Georgia Tech hardly throws the ball. at 6'0 185 he possesses a very good combination of size and speed as one of the better senior CB's in the nation. Right now he stands to be drafted in rounds 2 or 3- I would give him a 3rd rd. grade at this point. But the ideal size/speed combination means that a big year and excellent combine could cause him to skyrocket up draft boards by next year's draft.

Georgia Tech

Derrick Morgan DE- Morgan was a beast against Clemson with 3 sacks on Thursday night and now has 5 sacks and 6.5 TFL through only two games during this early season. At 6'4 275, Morgan possesses an exceptionally quick first-step which allows him to consistently beat the tackle to the edge. If the tackle attempts to overcompensate, Morgan shows the fluid hips to change direction quickly and dart inside in order to bypass the tackle. However, what I was most impressed with, is how stout an active Morgan is against the run. When plays were run towards him, he was stout at the point of attack- at one point making a great tackle behind the line by shredding the tackle and driving through RB Spiller's legs for the tackle on forth and short. On plays run away from him, he did a solid job of staying home and containing the backside- which is is very important considering they were facing a RB, Spiller, who has the type of speed and shiftiness to quickly redirect to the backside for a big play. Morgan is only a junior, but he is already on pace to an All-American year and possesses all the necessary measurables to be a first round pick in next year's draft.

Morgan Burnett S- A well-built junior safety, at 6'1 210, who is arguably the best junior safety in the country outside of Eric Berry; Burnett was a 2nd team All-America selection last year. He is yet another immensely talented player on this Georgia Tech team who has the physical measurables to be selected in the first round of the NFL draft- when he ultimately comes out.

Mario Butler CB- A 6'1 181 junior cornerback. Very good size for the position. Got beat a couple of times, by Clemson's speedy and talented receivers, but came up with a pick and generally held up well in coverage. Has a chance to be selected in the first three rounds and I may even be underselling him depending on how fast he runs his forty.

Jerrard Tarrant CB- 7 tackles 4 solo for the game which probably shows he was getting picked on a little to much in the passing game. The real attraction is his punt returning ability, as he broke one off against Clemson and is gaining a reputation as one of the most explosive return men in the country.

Prospect Rankings

1. Derrick Morgan

2. Da'Quan Bowers

3. Morgan Burnett

4. Crezdon Butler

5. Mario Butler

6. Jerrard Tarrant

7. DeAndre McDaniel

8. Brandon Maye

Offensive Draft Prospects: Clemson vs. Georgia Tech

Running backs make strong impressions....

Clemson
CJ Spiller RB NFL Comparison: Chris Johnson- For Clemson, the success of this team hinges on how well RB CJ Spiller can dominate games. Spiller, who runs in the low 4.3's at 5'11 195, is equally adept at making game changing plays by running the football as well as through catching the ball out of the backfield. Versus a superior Georgia Tech team, Spiller rushed the ball 20 times for 87 yards (4.4 YPC) in addition to making 4 catches for 67 yards and a touchdown. Given the fact that the Yellow Jackets blew the door open early with a 24-0 early lead, Spiller's rushing attempts were limited and he was forced to block and make plays through catching the ball. A 63 yard touchdown reception showed that he can still find a way to produce even in this unfavorable situation. Look for Spiller to make a strong push for the Heisman, this season, and if he can run a low 4.3 forty (as expected) he should be able to secure a draft spot somewhere in the mid to late first round.

Jacoby Ford WR NFL Comparison: Eddie Royal- at 5'10 185 Ford, a senior, is one of the fastest players in college football- he is the indoor 60 meter champion in college track and field. On Thursday night, he caught 5 passes for 109 yards including a 77 yard touchdown catch in which he executed a deep post against double coverage to make the catch and break free for the score. Ford, who has never caught more than 4 td's passes in a season, already has 2 touchdowns in 2 games so far this season. He has a chance to become an excellent slot receiver in the NFL and if he can continue to make plays throughout the season, he should secure a spot somewhere in the first three rounds of next year's draft.

Georgia Tech
Jonathan Dwyer RB NFL Comparison: Jonathan Stewart- Dwyer very well could be the most complete back in college football this season. He is an extremely powerful back who runs with a low pad level which allows him to ward off defenders and break through arm tackles in order to gain extra yards. Dwyer had an average game tonight- only rushing for 67 yards on 18 carries- but he didn't have to be spectacular as his teammate RB Anthony Allen was put in a position to be the big play threat tonight. Dwyer, at 6'1 235, is a house and if he can prove to be a consistent big play threat- in addition to being a dependable between the tackles back- he could be a first round selection come next draft. Even if he fails to run a sub 4.5 forty and falls to the second round; He will still prove to be a strong pro and a perfect compliment for a smaller change of pace back which seem to be coming into vogue these days in the NFL.

Anthony Allen RB NFL Comparison: Matt Forte- Allen- who transferred from Louisville- draws the Matt Forte comparison for a couple of reasons. First, he is a big back, at 6'1 228, who also can be a solid threat to catch the ball out of the backfield. And Second, b/c he will almost undoubtedly be underrated come draft time. Regardless, Allen was the star of the game, on Thursday, rushing for 127 yards on only 5 carries- including an 82 yard touchdown run- while also adding a 24 yard reception. Allen, like Dwyer, is only a junior so it is unlikely he will bolt for the NFL after this season-Dwyer, on the other hand, probably will come out early. But given Allen's added explosiveness (at Louisville he seemed like more of a short-yardage back) he could prove to be an even better NFL back than Dwyer. Allen will be one of the players I will be following closely through out this NFL season.

Demaryius Thomas WR NFL Comparison: TBD- I had not seen Thomas play before this game so I will reserve judgement before making an NFL comparison. But at 6'3 229, this junior is built in a similar way to former GT standout Calvin Johnson. He will have a lot of work to do to prove he can be considered an elite NFL prospect in said mold, but the early results 4 catches for 101 yards in the first game and 3 catches for 93 yards and a score in the second game- show that he has the type of big play ability (in addition to the freakish size) to maybe play his way into the first round. He is another prospect I will be following closely this season.

Prospect Rankings:

1. CJ Spiller

2. Jonathan Dwyer

3. Jacoby Ford

4. Demaryius Thomas

5. Anthony Allen

NFL Handicapping: Opening Night

I'll give my bio and pick rating system this weekend.

My general philosophy is money management, and make the big bets after we get more information on teams.

5 dimes Pittsburgh -6.5
5 dimes Over 35.5

Survivor Pools: Week 1 Picks

Will you be the one to survive?

One of the most interesting things to get involved in throughout NFL seasons are survivor pools. For those of you who are unfamiliar, it is a pool in which you select one NFL team to win each week as you attempt to "survive" through the NFL season without picking a team that loses that given week. The catch is that once you select a team, you can no longer pick that team again for the rest of the season. So, needless to say, there is a lot of down the road planning and strategy involved in not wasting all the elite teams at the start.

Eventually, you will have to make a couple of risky picks on teams that are facing competitors of similar talent. I do not suggest that you make a risky pick in week one. There is so much uncertainty coming into every season that you really can't get a strong feel for how good (or bad) a team is going to be until at least week three. So week 1, especially, is a week in which you want to generally pick a team who is considerably superior to the opponent they are facing that week so as to minimize risk and give yourself, hopefully, a week or two to make better evaluations of teams you want to lean on, or pick on more importantly, for the 2009-2010 season.

Still, if your a risk taker, as I often am, you may want to make a risky pick right off the bat. So this week I will offer my safe pick as well as a risky pick in order to give you a couple of options to choose from.

The Safe Pick- The New Orleans Saints over The Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions will not go 0-16 this season. However, you can be assured they are not going to win week 1 against the Saints. The Saints will likely be without Pierre Thomas for this week and Reggie Bush, as well, has not been entirely healthy throughout this preseason. Regardless, this offense- and this team- is about Drew Brees and his magical arm and the lions will not be able to stop Brees from throwing for 400+ yards and 3td's on the way to a blowout win. Mike Bell (a fantasy sleeper this week!) will be able to gain enough yards on the ground to keep the Lions D off balance but even in the absence of a running game, the passing game will prove to be more than enough.

This game will, undoubtedly, turn into somewhat of a shootout in which the Lions offense- though blessed with some young offensive playmakers-will not be able to keep up. In the likely event of a shootout, Kevin Smith will be taken out of the mix, as a runner, earlier and be forced to primarily serve as a security blanket for the Rookie QB, Stafford. Furthermore, Stafford will be under constant duress throughout the game as the Saints talented duo of pass rushers- Will Smith and Charles Grant- will be able to play the pass and therefore gear up to rush the passer. Calvin Johnson will have a hug day- and probably score a touchdown or two- but the Saint possess enough talented defensive backs to limit the production of the other wide receivers and probably pick off a pass or two, in the process, to stop any chances of the Lions mounting a comeback from the early deficit that the Saints offense will undoubtedly put them in.

The Saints are a safe play, but they are also not a team that you will regret wasting early as they play in one of the toughest divisions and therefore have less favorable matchups throughout the season. So pick the Saints and save your risky picks for another day.

The Risky Pick: The Seattle Seahawks over The St. Louis Rams
This stands as a risky pick because of the fact that the Seahawks were a 4-12 team last year. But that was not a true representation of the talent they have on their roster and, truth be told, I think they might win the NFC West this year. Matt Hasselbeck is primed for a comeback year now that he has a promising stable of receiving options lead by TJ Houshmandzadeh and John Carlson. They also will have an improved run game this year lead by Julius Jones and CO. Most importantly, the defense is vastly underrated with a strong front four; possibly the best collection of young LB's in the league; and a serviceable secondary lead by the ballhawking Marcus Trufant.

On the other hand, the Rams are a team that does not figure to improve much upon last years record. Marc Bulger is back, but all indications are that his best years have long passed him by. The offensive line has been bolstered, which means that Steven Jackson should be in for a strong bounce back year. But given that the Seahawks front seven figures to be the strength of their defense this season- the fact that Mr. Jackson will constantly be facing 8 man fronts with little hope that Bulger will be able to make the Seahawks pay for gearing up to stop the run. Finally, the Rams defense lacks difference makers and sports one of the worst secondary's in the league.

Expect a big day for Hasselbeck and expect the Seahawks to win in a rout.

Seymour Trade Analysis

Too Much Raider Hating!

Let me preface this by saying, ultimately, I think this is a bad deal for the Raiders and further shows the type of tunnel-vision approach they have been taking towards trying to assemble a winning team. This is a risky trade, for the Raiders, and recent history suggests they have not been overly shrewd in their evaluation of bringing in potential impact players. Nonetheless, the national media's perception of both the Patriots and the Raiders, as franchises, has seriously clouded many analysts' abilities to make sound determinations on the impact of this trade and, subsequently, has caused them to shell out these cookie-cutter weigh-in columns that all sing the same tune and lack much real analysis.

First off, just because this is a risky trade for the Raiders doesn't mean this is not a risky trade for the Patriots. Losing Seymour, on Defense, means that this team no longer has a player who seems to bring as much in terms of intangibles and leadership as they do in terms of production. For years, the Patriots defense has been marked by players (Bruski, Vrabal, Law, Harrison, and Seymour) who exemplify the so-called patriot way and help to raise the team to an elite status through intangibles and leadership.

Now, with the loss of Seymour, who do they have on defense who can fill that role? Adalius Thomas? Derrick Burgess? Shawn Springs? I wouldn't count on it. They have a couple of young emerging impact players in Wilfork, Warren, Mayo and Merriweather. Maybe Belicheck figured they have learned enough of the said Patriot way, from the old guys, and are now ready to emerge as the new wave of leaders...

That could be true, but it's still a considerable gamble, even for Belicheck, and I think his arrogance- as in his belief the effectiveness of his defense is not about the players, it's about the system- could very well cost them a chance at a ring this season.

I understand and generally agree with this mode of front office thinking which is to err on the side of dumping a player a year too early as opposed to getting rid of him a year too late. After all, I am an Oakland A's fan and there is no GM who wholeheartedly follows this approach more then Billy Beane.

So from the standpoint of ultimately receiving more value then they gave up, I applaud the Patriots. The pick will likely be in the top 20 picks, and stands a decent chance of being in the top 10- this will probably be the pick in which they find Tom Brady's replacement but that's another story.

But still, is winning a trade, in a vacuum, still a win if it potentially could cost you the chance to win the Super Bowl in 2009? Considering how many teams are primed to contend for the SB I am not sure the Brady/Moss tandem can wreak enough havoc to get past everyone. Teams have a better understanding of how to limit Moss, and more importantly, have a clear understanding that the Patriots line is weak and the only way to stop Brady is to constantly pressure and hit him. This year, they will need a super bowl caliber defense to win it all; with the loss of Seymour I'm not sure they have the talent to field one. If that is the case, this trade is a loss for the Patriots considering the Brady/Moss window may be starting to close...

Now, for the Raiders, there is no doubt that this trade represents Al Davis' riskiest move in recent memory and, let's face it, the Patriots received better value. But that does not mean that it may not have a profound impact in a way that ultimately justifies the acquisition.

Look, the Raiders need to make considerable progress this year. At worse- with or without Seymour- this season needed to result in, at worst, a 7-9 record or else serious mayhem (yes, it can get worse in Raiderland) would start to unfold.

I have always argued against the Raiders previous bold moves because Mr. Davis clearly got caught up in trying to acquire the superstar skill position player (Moss and Hall) while overlooking the holes along the offensive and defensive lines. With this trade, Mr. Davis has finally acquired a player who not only helps to shore up our biggest weakness (stopping the run), but also a player who can make other players' jobs easier and, thus, increase the chances that more players will have strong years. The ripple effect that is created by adding Seymour to the defensive line means so many potential things, that is near impossible to predict his effect until we actually see it.

His presence means that Tommy Kelly will never face double teams. The last time that was the case, he had Warren Sapp next to him and, as a result, looked to be emerging as one of the elite one-gap DT's in the league. His presence means that Trevor Scott moves back to his more ideal role as a pass-rush specialist where he is very capable of collecting 7-10 sacks (he had 5 in that role as a rookie) while not being forced into situations where he is getting pounded on running plays. His presence means that the Raiders linebackers- who are talented and fast, but undersized- will have to worry less about taking on blockers, and more about flowing to the ball and making the tackle. And finally, for a Raiders defense that has talent, but is young, he hopefully brings a professional demeanor and the type of "patriots way" intangibles that will help to rise this defense above its collective means.

Of course, he could get injured or just not show up at all and then all these hypothetical gains are rendered moot. And that considerable risk- or the fact that this situation has great potential to be a 1 year thing- is why I don't, ultimately, like this trade for the Raiders. But at least I can take the time to weigh the possible pro's and con's instead of spewing out a biased opinion because we are dealing with a trade involving the Raiders and the Patriots.

The risk and unknown, for both the Raiders and Patriots, involved in this trade is too significant for anyone to confidently say that either team made the right decision to make this deal. The Patriots received better value, yes. But, at this point, we will have no idea who will benefit more from this trade and will continue to not know until the 2009-2010 season is in the books.

Handicapping the NFC

Opening kickoff is a week away, and it's now time to unveil who I am betting on to become NFC Champions this season.

What I look for is not who I think is the best team in the NFC (Philadelphia), but rather teams that have a realistic shot at winning the NFC and offer value at their price. I'll use the New England Patriots as an example. Yes, Tom Brady looks to be back 100% and New England could return to their status ontop of the NFL. But, am I going to place a bet on them to win the AFC at 2-1? Hell no. New England is good, great team, but they aren't flawless by any means. Their secondary leaves a lot to be desired, as well as the running game. Tom Brady sure has taken some hits this preseason, that line clearly isn't bulletproof. Can the Patriots win the AFC? Absolutely. Are they good value at 2-1? Absolutely not.

Our goal is to find the best values, and get one of our teams in their respective conference championship games. As long as one of them makes it, your guaranteed money. If you have one team in, you bet against them in the game, and no matter the outcome, your making money.

Here's a look at my picks for the NFC (odds courtesy of BoDog.com):

Atlanta Falcons: 12/1

Michael Vick and Bobby Petrino did a lot to seemingly destroy this franchise, which appeared it was in a long rebuilding periond. Enter Mike Smith and Matt Ryan. Nobody, probably including the Falcons, expected the results they delivered last season. Matt Ryan, last seasons Rookie of the Year, brought the Falcons to an impressive 11-5 season and wild-card berth. They drew the eventual NFC Champion, Arizona Cardinals, and Ryan picked the wrong game to act like a rookie. 3 turnovers later, Arizona danced to a 30-24 victory.

I'm not placing this bet, solely because I think Matt Ryan is poised to make even bigger strides this year. Their running game, led by Michael Turner, will be one of the elites in the NFL. Now, not only does Ryan have Roddy White to throw the ball to, the Falcons signed veteran and future Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez to round out what's to be a prolific offense.

The defense needed upgrades, as it finished 22nd in the NFL last season. Their key loss was Dominique Foxworth to Baltimore. However, the Falcons spent all but 1 draft pick on the defensive side of the football. 1st round pick, Peria Jerry, will become an immediate starter at DT to form a solid defensive line with John Abraham. The Falcons lack experience in their "back-7" but they don't lack speed. This is a young and fast defense, that could skate to a division title through the offense. The Colts have proven you don't need a great defense to win championships. These Falcons are hungry after a disappointing playoff loss last year, and offer very good value at 12-1.

Green Bay Packers- 9/1

I'm a full-fledged believer in Aaron Rodgers. This Packers team has impressed me over the course of the preseason. I love the offense. The line is solid, Ryan Grant looks poised to return to 2007 form, and Lee/Finley is a nice TE combination. The strength of this team is the passing game. The receiving corps is deep: Jennings, Driver, Nelson, and Jones.

Everyone knows about the offense, what about the Big-D. Well, Mike McCarthy completely renovated his Defensive staff, and brings Dom Capers to run the defense this year. The personnel in Green Bay is good, and better suited for the 3-4 defense Capers is bringing in. AJ Hawk will no longer be exposed in the passing game, and can focus on getting after the QB, which Green Bay will do well this year with the likes of Aaron Kampman and BJ Raji. Green Bay struggled against the run, but LB Nick Barnett has a clean bill of health and is ready to contribute.

I'm not buying the hype of Brett Favre and Jay Cutler into the NFC North. My feeling is the Packers and Vikings will battle it out for NFC North supremacy, but; in a playoff game, after watching last season, would you prefer Aaron Rodgers or Brett Favre?

Tomorrow, look for my AFC Futures Handicapping Analysis.