Monday, October 19, 2009
Scouting Report: Jake Locker
Friday, October 9, 2009
1. St. Louis- Sam Bradford
2. Kansas City- Eric Berry
3. Tampa Bay- Ndamukong Suh
4. Cleveland- Gerald McCoy
5. Oakland- Carlos Dunlap
6. Washington- Jimmy Clausen
7. Detroit- Russell Okung
8. San Francisco - from Carolina- Taylor Mays
9. Buffalo- Brian Buluga
10. Tennessee- Rolando McClain
11. Miami- Dez Bryant
12. Arizona- Greg Hardy
13. Dallas- Terrence Cody
14. Seattle- Trent Williams
15. Houston- Joe Haden
16. Jacksonville- Tim Tebow
17. Green Bay- Anthony Davis
18. San Diego- Jonathan Dwyer
19. Philadelphia- Reshad Jones
20. Atlanta- Morgan Burnett
21. Seattle - from Denver- Javhid Best
22. Denver - from Chicago- Colt McCoy
23. Cincinnati- Jermaine Gresham
24. New York Jets- Patrick Robinson
25. San Francisco- Jake Locker
26. New England- C.J. Spiller
27. Minnesota- Joe Pike
28. Baltimore- Demaryius Thomas
29. Pittsburgh- Ras-I Dowling
30. New Orleans- Lee Ziemba
31. Indianapolis- Arrellious Benn
32. New York Giants- Sean Weatherspoon
Chicago-Denver: Jay Cutler
Denver-Seattle: Alphonso Smith
Carolina-San Francisco: Everette Brown
Round 2
33. St. Louis- Derrick Morgan
34. Kansas City- Charles Brown
35. Tampa Bay- Damien Williams
36. Cleveland- Sergio Kindle
37. Oakland- Brandon Spikes
38. Washington- Ciron Black
39. Detroit- Everson Griffen
40. Carolina- Greg Romeus
41. Buffalo- Brandon Lafell
42. New England - from Tennessee- George Selvie
43. Miami- Myron Lewis
44. Arizona- Donavan Warren
45. Dallas- Marshawn Gilyard
46. Seattle- Trevard Lindley
47. Houston- Arthur Rhodes
48. New England - from Jacksonville- Kristopher O'Dowd
49. Green Bay- Mike Johnson
50. San Diego- Corey Wooten
51. Philadelphia- Brandon Graham
52. Kansas City - from Atlanta- Eric Decker
53. Denver- Vince Oghobaase
54. Chicago- Desmone Briscoe
55. Cincinnati- Mike Pouncey
56. New York Jets- Jerry Hughes
57. San Francisco- Eric Norwood
58. New England- Sam Young
59. Minnesota- Michael Morgan
60. Baltimore- Dominique Franks
61. Pittsburgh- Adam Ulatoski
62. New Orleans- Sean Lee
63. Indianapolis- Selvish Capers
64. New York Giants- Darrell Stuckey
Atlanta-Kansas City: Tony Gonzalez
Jacksonville-New England: Derek Cox
Tennessee-New England: Jared Cook
Round 3
65. St. Louis-Sy'Qaun Thompson
66. Kansas City- Brandon Ghee
67. Tampa Bay- Rod Muckelroy
68. Cleveland- Jacoby Ford
69. Oakland- Jake Fox
70. Washington- Rod Muckelroy
70. Detroit- Jared Ordick
71. Carolina- Jarrett Brown
72. Buffalo- Zach Robinson
73. Tennessee- C.J. Wilson
74. Miami- Eric Norwood
75. Arizona- Zane Beadles
76. Dallas- Eric Wang
77. Philadelphia - from Seattle- Navarro Bowman
78. Houston- Nate Allen
79. Jacksonville- Stephen Virgil
80. Green Bay- Walter Thurmond
81. San Diego- Pat Angerer
82. Philadelphia- Charles Scott
83. Atlanta- Perish Cox
84. Denver- Brandon Lang
85. Chicago- Quan Sturdivant
86. Cincinnati- Mike Williams
87. Cleveland - from New York Jets- Dennis Pitta
88. San Francisco- Jordan Shipley
89. Oakland - from New England- Kyle Wilson
90. Minnesota- Boo Robinson
91. Baltimore- Darryl Sharpton
92. Pittsburgh- Sergio Render
93. New Orleans- Geno Atkins
94. Indianapolis- Perry Riley
95. New York Giants- Kyle Calloway
Seattle-Philadelphia: Deon Butler
Washington used its 3rd-rounder in the Supplemental Draft
New England-Oakland: Derrick Burgess
Jets-Cleveland: Braylon Edwards
Sunday, October 4, 2009
Week 4 NFL Handicapping
15dime-3 team, 6pt teaser (to win 27)
Houston -2.5
Bengals -.5
Giants -3
10dime-2team 6pt teaser
Bengals-.5
SF -3
10dime-Chargers +6.5
5dime-Patriots -1
5dime-Bills+1
5dime-Cowboys -3
Thursday, October 1, 2009
NHL Season Preview
1)
2) Philadelphia-Ray Emery is a massive ? but they can hurt you in so many ways.
3) Boston-There’s no way Tim Thomas can repeat last seasons success, but for all the talk about the Southeast being the worst division in Hockey, what about the Northeast?
4) Pittsburgh-Cup hangover causes them to start slow, but the machine will be ready for the playoffs.
5) Carolina-Underrated, scrappy team. Kept almost the entire team together
6) New Jersey- Brodeur is enough to keep them relevant in the East
7)
8) Buffalo-Because the rest of the East is just so mediocre.
9) Montreal-See Above
10)
11) Atlanta-Not as bad everyone thinks. Their Top 4 defenseman are very solid.
12) NY Rangers-Yeah, this is my way of saying—I don’t think Marion Gaborik can stay healthy
13) Florida-It honestly wouldn’t shock me to see
14) Ottawa-Not enough scoring, not enough defense, and weak goaltending.
15) NY Islanders-They are on the Caps rebuilding plan, 2-3 more years Islander fans.
West
1)
2) San Jose-Regular season success continues in
3) Vancouver- Luongo and the twins is enough to keep them atop the division
4) Detroit-See
5) Anaheim-Wow, what a 1st round matchup this would be.
6) Calgary-Jay-Bo makes this team a tougher draw, plus shows the depth of the Western Conference
7)
8)
9)
10) Columbus-See above
11)
12)
13) Dallas-Let in a ton of goals last year, bad PP + PK.
14)
15)
Playoffs-East
1st round
West
1st round
Monday, September 28, 2009
MNF Handicapping
Sunday Total 6-1 (+35dimes)
MNF:
This point spread is a little too high. The Panthers are desperate, and all Jake Delhomme has to do is get the ball to Steve Smith and the hand the ball of the DeAngelo Williams. Don't get pretty out there, and the Panthers should have no problem moving the ball tonight.
5dime parlay: Carolina (+8.5) and the Under (48.5)
Sunday, September 27, 2009
NFL Handicapping Week 3
I'll have my play on SNF posted later tomorrow.
Good luck everyone!
25dimes- Tenn +2.5 --Classic case of the media darlings against a hungry 0-2 team. Tenn will be the first real test for Sanchez, and Rex Ryan is cocky, maybe overconfident. Fischer will bring out all the stops.
10dimes- Bears -2.5 --Seattle has tons of injuries on offense and defense. Cutler outduels Seneca Wallace
10dimes- Ravens -13 --Ravens Defense will make a point tomorrow. 31-10 Ravens
10dimes- 6pt Teaser- NY Giants (-.5) and Saints (even)
10dimes- 6pt Teaser- NY Giants (-.5) and Packers (-.5)
5dimes- Lions ML +250 --Small play here. Call it a hunch, but the Redskins are the perfect recipe for the Lions. They will play this game like their Superbowl, against one of the worst offenses in the NFL.
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Fantasy Football Strategy
2 New Orleans Saints 2-0 It's one thing to light up the Lions, quite another to do it to the Eagles. I believe.
3 Atlanta Falcons 2-0 Losing Peria Jerry for the season hurts, but they still have one of the most exciting offenses in the NFL, but the defense is green.
4 Minnesota Vikings 2-0 I don't think Brett Favre can win this team a game when it counts. But they have the most dangerous player in football who can.
5 Baltimore Ravens 2-0 I am starting to come around on Mike's team- the Ravens. Flacco is developing into an elite QB and the run game is better than ever. However, I continue to question whether this defense is still elite.
6 Pittsburgh Steelers 1-1 Due to a Jeff Reed melt down, they are not 2-0. More worrysome, however, is the fact that they have no run game.
7 Indianapolis Colts 2-0 If the Colts have any QB other than Manning, outside of Brees, they are at best an 8-8 team. The Defense is porous and Manning has limited offensive weapons. But, bottom line, they are 2-0.
8 New York Jets 2-0 One of the best defenses in football, a solid run game and a QB who knows how to minimize mistakes and win games. This team is for real.
9 Philadelphia Eagles 1-1 Is New Orleans really that good, or is Philly not as good as we thought?
10 San Diego Chargers 1-1 Tough loss to the Ravens. The run game has not been effective, the defense just isn't strong and they have one of the worst coaches in football. Right now, they are not a SB contender.
11 San Francisco 49ers 2-0 The 49ers are quietly becoming a good football team.
12 Dallas Cowboys 1-1 Well the Cowboys blew their last game in the old stadium, and Tony Romo blew their debut in the new palace.
13 New England Patriots 1-1 Brady is human. Moss looked uninterested in the game. The defense is no longer elite. This could be trouble.
14 Chicago Bears 1-1 Jeff Reed helped them, but Jay Cutler responded this week.
15 Green Bay Packers 1-1 Losing to the Bengals at home? It's not like they were looking ahead to the Rams next week.
16 Cincinnati Bengals 1-1 The Bengals should be 2-0. Benson is a beast (I'm going to let that set in for a second. The defense is stout. But Palmer needs to minimize mistakes.
17 Arizona Cardinals 1-1 There's the Cardinals offense we know.
18 Houston Texans 1-1 Great bounce back effort for Schaub and the offense. Slaton should start to get going too. But this defense has to start stopping people.
19 Tennessee Titans 0-2 How do you lose when your RB puts up nearly 300 yards of offense? Maybe this defense really does miss Haynesworth.
20 Buffalo Bills 1-1 Fred Jackson is blowing up. If Trent Edwards can continue to develop into a quality starting QB, we could be looking at a borderline playoff team. But I need to see more.
21 Denver Broncos 2-0 Despite the record, neither mike nor I are convinced yet. If Russell plays well and they still beat the Raiders next week, then I may come around.
22 Oakland Raiders 1-1 It's all about Russell and the passing game. The defense is proving to be a formidable unit and they have the ingrediants for a top rushing attack. But Russell has to make the developmental jump.
23 Miami Dolphins 0-2 Fought hard in a loss to the Colts. Still, this team cannot consistently move the ball through the air and their rushing effectiveness was more attributable to a bad Colts run D.
24 Seattle Seahawks 1-1 Another season, another Hasselbeck injury.
25 Washington Redskins 0-2 Would I be surprised to see the Lions pull of the upset Sunday? No.
26 Carolina Panthers 0-2 Jake Delhomme survived without 5 turnovers, that was a victory in itself
27 Jacksonville Jaguars 0-2 MJD seems to be the only bright spot on this team. This is FO projections team most likely to move to LA in the next two years.
28 Kansas City Chiefs 0-2 They couldn't beat the Raiders despite gaining substantially more yards on offense and JaMarcus Russell turning in his worst game as a pro. Turnovers proved to be the difference in this game.
29 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0-2 This team has the tools to be a spoiler, but they are a few years away from being a contender.
30 Detroit Lions 0-2 The Lions are going to win 2 games this year.
31 Cleveland Browns 0-2 The clock is ticking for Brady Quinn. One more bad game and Derek Anderson might be guy from here on out. FO Projections thinks that would be a good call.
32 St. Louis Rams 0-2 It's a shame Steven Jackson is rotting away the prime of his career here.
Monday, September 21, 2009
2010 NFL Draft
* Denotes Junior
** Denontes Redshirt Sophomore
Quarterback Rankings
1. Sam Bradford Oklahoma*- top 10
2. Jevan Snead Ole Miss*- top 15
3. Jimmy Clausen Notre* Dame- top 15
4. Colt McCoy Texas-Round 1
5. Jake Locker* Washington- Round 2
6. Tony Pike Cincinnati- Round 2
7. Tim Tebow Florida- Round 1 (apparent discrepancy means I don't like him but think he will go in the 1st round)
8. Jarrett Brown West Virginia- Round 3-4
9. Tim Hiller Western Michigan- Round 4-5
10. Zach Robinson Oklahoma State- Round 4-5
Runningback
1. CJ Spiller* Clemson- Round 1
2. Jonathan Dwyer* Georgia Tech- Round 1
3. Javhid Best Cal- Round 1
4. Evan Royster* Penn State- Round 1
5. DeMarco Murray* Oklahoma- Round 2
6. Joe McKnight* USC- Round 2
7. Charles Scott LSU- Round 3
8. Greg Cooper* Miami- Round 3
9. Kendall Hunter* Oklahoma State- Round 3
10. Toby Gerhart Stanford- Round 4-5
Wide Receiver
1. Dez Bryant* Oklahoma State- Top 15
2. Arrelious Benn* Illinois- Top 15
3. Michael Crabtree Texas Tech- Top 15 (based off prediction that he will not sign with SF)
4. Demaryius Thomas* Georgia Tech- Round 1
5. Damien Williams* USC- Round 1-2
6. Eric Decker Minnesota- Round 2
7. Jacoby Ford Clemson- Round 2-3
8. Jordan Shipley Texas- Round 3
9. Brandon LaFell LSU- Round 3
10. Mardy Gilyard Cincinnati- Round 3
11. Terrence Tolliver* LSU- Round 2-4
12. Desmon Briscoe* Kansas- Round 2-4
13. Mike Williams Syracuse- Round 4
14. Mark Dell* Michigan State- Round 2-4
15. Golden Tate* Notre Dame- Round 4
Tight End
1. Jermaine Gresham Oklahoma- Round 1-2
2. Rob Gronkowski* Arizona- Round 1-2
3. Anthony McCoy USC- Round 2-3
4. Ed Dickson Oregon- Round 3-4
5. Dennis Pitta BYU- Round 3-4
Offensive Tackle
1. Russell Okung Oklahoma State- Top 15
2. Trent Williams Oklahoma- Top 15
3. Brian Buluga* Iowa- Top 15
4. Anthony Davis* Rutgers- Round 1
5. Selvish Capers West Virginia- Round 1
6. Bruce Campbell* Maryland- Round 1
7. Gabe Carimi* Wisconsin- Round 1
8. Charles Brown USC- Round 2
9. Ciron Black LSU- Round 2
10. Jake Fox Miami- Round 2
11. Sam Young Notre Dame- Round 2-3
12. Kyle Calloway Iowa- Round 3
13. Kyle Ulatoski Texas- Round 3
14. Jarriel King* South Carolina- Round 3
15. Kyle Hix* Texas- Round 3
Offensive Guard
1. Mike Johnson Alabama- Round 2-3
2. Mike Pouncey* Florida- Round 2-3
3. John Asamoah Illinois- Round 3
4. Thomas Austin Clemson- Round 3
5. Mitch Petrus Arkansas- Round 3-4
Offensive Center
1. Kristofer O'Dowd* USC- Round 1-2
2. Matt Tennant Boston College- Round 2
3. John Estes Hawaii- Round 3
4. J.D. Walton Baylor- Round 3-4
5. Stefen Wisniewski* Penn State- Round 3-4
Defensive End
1. Carlos Dunlap* Florida- Top 10
2. Derrick Morgan* Georgia Tech- Top 15
3. Greg Hardy Ole Miss- Round 1
4. Everson Griffen* USC- Round 1-2
5. Cameron Heyward* Ohio State- Round 1-2
6. Greg Romeus* Pittsburgh- Round 1-2
7. Corey Wooten Northwestern- Round 1-2
8. Brandon Graham Michigan- Round 2-3
9. C.J. Wilson Eastern Carolina- Round 3
10. Brandon Lang Troy- Round 3-4
Defensive Tackle
1. Ndamukong Suh Nebraska- Top 10
2. Gerald McCoy* Oklahoma- Top 10
3. Terrence Cody Alabama- Round 1-2
4. Marvin Austin* North Carolina- Round 1-2
5. Arthur Rhodes Syracuse- Round 1-2
6. Allen Bailey* Miami- Round 1-2
7. Brian Price* UCLA- Round 1-2
8. Lawrence Marsh* Florida- Round 2
9. Stephen Paea* Oregon State- Round 2-3
10. Phil Taylor* Baylor-Round 2-3
Outside Linebacker
1. Sean Weatherspoon Missouri- Round 1
2. George Selvie South Florida- Round 1-2
3. Travis Lewis** Oklahoma- Round 1-2
4. Sergio Kindle Texas- Round 2
5. Ricky Sapp Clemson- Round 2
6. Jerry Hughes TCU- Round 3
7. Justin Cole San Jose State- Round 3
8. Eric Norwood South Carolina- Round 3
9. A.J. Edds* Iowa- Round 3-4
10. Perry Riley LSU- Round 3-4
Inside Linebacker
1. Brandon Spikes Florida- Round 1
2. Rolando McClain* Alabama- Round 1
3. Greg Jones* Michigan State- Round 2
4. Quan Sturdivant* North Carolina- Round 2-3
5. Sean Lee Penn State- Round 3
6. Daryl Washington TCU- Round 3-4
7. Pat Angerer Iowa- Round 3-4
8. Obi Ezeh* Michigan- Round 3-4
9. Brian Smith* Notre Dame- Round 4
10. Casey Matthews* Oregon- Round 4
Cornerback
1. Joe Haden* Florida- Round 1
2. Patrick Robinson Florida State- Round 1
3. Ras-I Dowling* Virginia- Round 1
4. Syd'Quan Thompson Cal- Round 2
5. Trevard Lindley Kentucky- Round 2
6. Dominique Frank* Oklahoma- Round 2
7. Donavan Warren* Michigan- Round 2
8. Brandon Ghee Wake Forest- Round 2-3
9. Perish Cox Oklahoma State- Round 3
10. Javier Arenas Alabama- Round 3-4
Free Safety
1. Eric Berry* Tennessee- Top 5
2. Morgan Burnett* Georgia Tech- Round 1-2
3. Major Wright* Florida- Round 3
4. Nate Allen South Florida- Round 3-4
5. Josh Pinkard USC- Round 3-4
Strong Safety
1. Taylor Mays USC- Top 15
2. Reshad Jones* Georgia- Round 1-2
3. Chad Jones* LSU- Round 2
4. Darrell Stuckey* Kansas- Round 2-3
5. Kam Chancellor Virginia Tech- Round 3-4
Week 2 MNF
MNF Handicapping
10dimes- Colts (-3), (Buy the hook if you need to)
5dimes- Under 42
2009 Total:
5-5 (-6.75 dimes)
Saturday, September 19, 2009
Week 2 NFL Handicapping
Let's build back up that bankroll with another big Sunday.
10dimes-New Orleans Saints (-1). The Eagles won't be able to be compete in a shootout with New Orleans without Donovan McNabb on the field.
10dimes-Pittsburgh Steelers (-3). You thought Jay Cutler looked bad against Green Bay's defense, Pittsburgh's defense, even without #43, will make it tough for the Bears.
10dimes-New England Patriots (-3.5). Sure the Patriots looked vunerable on defense, and sluggish on offense for 55minutes on Monday. But, you just don't trash talk the Patriots. The Pats make a statement here.
5dimes- New York Giants (+145). Small moneyline play here. The Giants are the most complete team in football, and we get good odds for them to pull it off outright.
2009 season totals:
3-3 (-2.5 dimes).
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Week 1 Reviews: Fantasy Pickups
GO GET THEM!
Louis Murphy WR Oakland Raiders- He had 5 catches for 87 yards and a touchdown going against the Chargers on Monday night. As it stands right now, he is the most reliable wide receiver in the Raiders offense and has shown a decent rapport with Russell when no other wide out has. He should have scored two TD's but a truly horrible rule allowed the booth, upon review, to determine otherwise. Look, his fantasy relevance could be shortlived since, upon Chaz Schilens return in probably week 3 or 4, he will likely be relegated to slot receiver. But still, he's been reliable throughout preseason and the first regular season game, and Russell's strong arm means he can find Murphy deep 1 or 2 times a game, if Murphy continues to find ways to get open deep as he did in the first game.
Benjamin Watson TE New England Patriots- He caught 6 balls for 77 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Bills. I have been waiting for Watson to come around ever since he was drafted in the first round a couple years back. Watson may still have games where he is rarely targeted due to the fact that Brady likes to spread the ball around and they often go to 4 and 5 WR sets. But Watson is talented enough to split out as a WR, and the fact that he caught two TD's including the game winner means that Brady should have more confidence in looking to him in clutch moments or moments where he is under duress.
Joe Flacco QB Baltimore Ravens- Had three touchdown passes in a strong effort against the KC Chiefs. He may already have been drafted in your league. But if you are not in a deep league, and he is available, he should be picked up immediately and should continue to be a top 12 QB for the rest of the year.
Patrick Crayton WR Dallas Cowboys- Again, he is another player who is probably already unavailable on the waiver wire. However, if he is picked up he could develop into a very nice WR2 given the fact that he has Tony Romo at QB. He caught 4 balls for 135 yards and a TD so he offers nice big-play ability.
DON'T BUY IN YET
Robert Meachem and Deverey Henderson- Both players had huge games against a porous Detroit secondary that simply couldn't account for all the offensive options on the Saints offense. However, don't buy into Meachem and Henderson just yet for exactly that reason. Coming into the season, Colston, Bush, Moore, and shockey were all considered better fantasy options than Meachem and Henderson. Both offer big-play ability but the fact that Brees has so many options to work with means that both receivers could have big performances followed by multiple game stretches where they only catch 1 or 2 balls. If nothing else, this tempers the potential of other more reliable fantasy options like Colston, Bush, Shockey and Moore.
Monday, September 14, 2009
MNF Week 1 Handicapping
Let's take a look at yesterday's action:
Min (-4) covers at Cleveland
--You have to give Cleveland credit, they made you sweat until the 3rd quarter. The fact is Cleveland is a bad football team. Their defense is going to get abused all season, and Brady Quinn is going to take a while to develop into a formidable quarterback. The Vikings are going to be one of the more overrated teams this year solely b/c of Brett Favre. Personally, I think Brett is beyond washed up, and against good defenses the Vikings will suffer. If you find a team that can stop the run, and has a formidable offense--New York G, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Tennessee, and San Diego to name a few--Minnesota won't be able to compete with. Watch for inflated Vikings lines.
Baltimore (-12.5) covers vs. Kansas City
--Sometimes its better to be lucky than good, this time was a case of being lucky AND good. This was a nice break, to get these last second scores that actually go in your favor. The Chiefs had no business being in that game, The Ravens more than doubled their yards and TOP. The Ravens special teams blew it--missed FG and blocked punt for a KC TD. The Ravens set a franchise record 501 yards of offense, led by a surprising 43 pass attempts from Joe Flacco. That shouldn't have been surprising if your paying attention. This Ravens offense will be good this year and efficient. The running game is strong--Ray Rice and McGahee look better-- and they leave themselves manageable 3rd downs. I expect Flacco to throw it 30-35times a game. The Chiefs front 7 is better than expected, and if they could find a running game--this won't be a terrible football team. Todd Haley will make this a dangerous team come November, December.
6pt teaser (Ind + Atl) cover.
--Why tease?
It's not a method I use often--because if both teams cover--the odds are like 70% you would have won both games at their original spreads.
I was worried about the Colts being in a dogfight, but I was confident in the Colts to win their home opener. Jacksonville was missing several pieces in their starting defense, and didn't think they had the outside weapons to beat the Colts. I expect the Colts to focus on stopping MJD, but teams that have better QB play and playmakers at WR/TE can be a big matchup problem for the Colts. The Colts are an interesting team to me, I'm not as high on them as most, but; I'm not high on that whole division.
Tonights Play
--Biggest Play of the Season
15 dimes New England Patriots -10.5
Season
3-2 (+14 dimes)
Sunday, September 13, 2009
Week 1 NFL Handicapping
The Dime Betting System Explain:
Let's say your maximum wager size is $200. Well, if I release a 100 dime play, then it should be a $200 wager. If I release a 50 dime play, it should be a $100 wager. Taking it one step further, if I release a 20 dime pick, it should be a $100 wager.
I love the Action on the Week 1 card here. I'll have my biggest play of the season for MNF tomorrow. Let's get rolling for today...
10dimes- Baltimore -12.5
10dimes- Minn -4
5 dimes-6pt Teaser- Indy (-.5) and Atlanta (+2)
Total for Season: -11 Dimes
Friday, September 11, 2009
Defensive Draft Prospects: Clemson vs. Georgia Tech
Offensive Draft Prospects: Clemson vs. Georgia Tech
Clemson
CJ Spiller RB NFL Comparison: Chris Johnson- For Clemson, the success of this team hinges on how well RB CJ Spiller can dominate games. Spiller, who runs in the low 4.3's at 5'11 195, is equally adept at making game changing plays by running the football as well as through catching the ball out of the backfield. Versus a superior Georgia Tech team, Spiller rushed the ball 20 times for 87 yards (4.4 YPC) in addition to making 4 catches for 67 yards and a touchdown. Given the fact that the Yellow Jackets blew the door open early with a 24-0 early lead, Spiller's rushing attempts were limited and he was forced to block and make plays through catching the ball. A 63 yard touchdown reception showed that he can still find a way to produce even in this unfavorable situation. Look for Spiller to make a strong push for the Heisman, this season, and if he can run a low 4.3 forty (as expected) he should be able to secure a draft spot somewhere in the mid to late first round.
Jacoby Ford WR NFL Comparison: Eddie Royal- at 5'10 185 Ford, a senior, is one of the fastest players in college football- he is the indoor 60 meter champion in college track and field. On Thursday night, he caught 5 passes for 109 yards including a 77 yard touchdown catch in which he executed a deep post against double coverage to make the catch and break free for the score. Ford, who has never caught more than 4 td's passes in a season, already has 2 touchdowns in 2 games so far this season. He has a chance to become an excellent slot receiver in the NFL and if he can continue to make plays throughout the season, he should secure a spot somewhere in the first three rounds of next year's draft.
Georgia Tech
Jonathan Dwyer RB NFL Comparison: Jonathan Stewart- Dwyer very well could be the most complete back in college football this season. He is an extremely powerful back who runs with a low pad level which allows him to ward off defenders and break through arm tackles in order to gain extra yards. Dwyer had an average game tonight- only rushing for 67 yards on 18 carries- but he didn't have to be spectacular as his teammate RB Anthony Allen was put in a position to be the big play threat tonight. Dwyer, at 6'1 235, is a house and if he can prove to be a consistent big play threat- in addition to being a dependable between the tackles back- he could be a first round selection come next draft. Even if he fails to run a sub 4.5 forty and falls to the second round; He will still prove to be a strong pro and a perfect compliment for a smaller change of pace back which seem to be coming into vogue these days in the NFL.
Anthony Allen RB NFL Comparison: Matt Forte- Allen- who transferred from Louisville- draws the Matt Forte comparison for a couple of reasons. First, he is a big back, at 6'1 228, who also can be a solid threat to catch the ball out of the backfield. And Second, b/c he will almost undoubtedly be underrated come draft time. Regardless, Allen was the star of the game, on Thursday, rushing for 127 yards on only 5 carries- including an 82 yard touchdown run- while also adding a 24 yard reception. Allen, like Dwyer, is only a junior so it is unlikely he will bolt for the NFL after this season-Dwyer, on the other hand, probably will come out early. But given Allen's added explosiveness (at Louisville he seemed like more of a short-yardage back) he could prove to be an even better NFL back than Dwyer. Allen will be one of the players I will be following closely through out this NFL season.
Demaryius Thomas WR NFL Comparison: TBD- I had not seen Thomas play before this game so I will reserve judgement before making an NFL comparison. But at 6'3 229, this junior is built in a similar way to former GT standout Calvin Johnson. He will have a lot of work to do to prove he can be considered an elite NFL prospect in said mold, but the early results 4 catches for 101 yards in the first game and 3 catches for 93 yards and a score in the second game- show that he has the type of big play ability (in addition to the freakish size) to maybe play his way into the first round. He is another prospect I will be following closely this season.
Thursday, September 10, 2009
NFL Handicapping: Opening Night
My general philosophy is money management, and make the big bets after we get more information on teams.
5 dimes Pittsburgh -6.5
5 dimes Over 35.5
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
Survivor Pools: Week 1 Picks
Eventually, you will have to make a couple of risky picks on teams that are facing competitors of similar talent. I do not suggest that you make a risky pick in week one. There is so much uncertainty coming into every season that you really can't get a strong feel for how good (or bad) a team is going to be until at least week three. So week 1, especially, is a week in which you want to generally pick a team who is considerably superior to the opponent they are facing that week so as to minimize risk and give yourself, hopefully, a week or two to make better evaluations of teams you want to lean on, or pick on more importantly, for the 2009-2010 season.
Still, if your a risk taker, as I often am, you may want to make a risky pick right off the bat. So this week I will offer my safe pick as well as a risky pick in order to give you a couple of options to choose from.
The Safe Pick- The New Orleans Saints over The Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions will not go 0-16 this season. However, you can be assured they are not going to win week 1 against the Saints. The Saints will likely be without Pierre Thomas for this week and Reggie Bush, as well, has not been entirely healthy throughout this preseason. Regardless, this offense- and this team- is about Drew Brees and his magical arm and the lions will not be able to stop Brees from throwing for 400+ yards and 3td's on the way to a blowout win. Mike Bell (a fantasy sleeper this week!) will be able to gain enough yards on the ground to keep the Lions D off balance but even in the absence of a running game, the passing game will prove to be more than enough.
This game will, undoubtedly, turn into somewhat of a shootout in which the Lions offense- though blessed with some young offensive playmakers-will not be able to keep up. In the likely event of a shootout, Kevin Smith will be taken out of the mix, as a runner, earlier and be forced to primarily serve as a security blanket for the Rookie QB, Stafford. Furthermore, Stafford will be under constant duress throughout the game as the Saints talented duo of pass rushers- Will Smith and Charles Grant- will be able to play the pass and therefore gear up to rush the passer. Calvin Johnson will have a hug day- and probably score a touchdown or two- but the Saint possess enough talented defensive backs to limit the production of the other wide receivers and probably pick off a pass or two, in the process, to stop any chances of the Lions mounting a comeback from the early deficit that the Saints offense will undoubtedly put them in.
The Saints are a safe play, but they are also not a team that you will regret wasting early as they play in one of the toughest divisions and therefore have less favorable matchups throughout the season. So pick the Saints and save your risky picks for another day.
The Risky Pick: The Seattle Seahawks over The St. Louis Rams
This stands as a risky pick because of the fact that the Seahawks were a 4-12 team last year. But that was not a true representation of the talent they have on their roster and, truth be told, I think they might win the NFC West this year. Matt Hasselbeck is primed for a comeback year now that he has a promising stable of receiving options lead by TJ Houshmandzadeh and John Carlson. They also will have an improved run game this year lead by Julius Jones and CO. Most importantly, the defense is vastly underrated with a strong front four; possibly the best collection of young LB's in the league; and a serviceable secondary lead by the ballhawking Marcus Trufant.
On the other hand, the Rams are a team that does not figure to improve much upon last years record. Marc Bulger is back, but all indications are that his best years have long passed him by. The offensive line has been bolstered, which means that Steven Jackson should be in for a strong bounce back year. But given that the Seahawks front seven figures to be the strength of their defense this season- the fact that Mr. Jackson will constantly be facing 8 man fronts with little hope that Bulger will be able to make the Seahawks pay for gearing up to stop the run. Finally, the Rams defense lacks difference makers and sports one of the worst secondary's in the league.
Expect a big day for Hasselbeck and expect the Seahawks to win in a rout.
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
Seymour Trade Analysis
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
Handicapping the NFC
Our goal is to find the best values, and get one of our teams in their respective conference championship games. As long as one of them makes it, your guaranteed money. If you have one team in, you bet against them in the game, and no matter the outcome, your making money.
Here's a look at my picks for the NFC (odds courtesy of BoDog.com):