Is a return to dominance in order now that Tom Brady is back at the helm?The short answer is yes- but nonetheless there are concerns. Brady's confidence in the pocket will be closely watched and could prove to be a strong indication of whether or not he is set to have a big year. If he returns to form, everything else should fall into place. They have a new offensive coordinator after the departure of Josh McDaniels. However, this is a veteran group and I would venture to say that the offense will be more or less the same. There wide receiving core still ranks among the best as it features arguably the games best possession receiver (Welker) and the games best deep threat (Moss). They also feature a group of running backs who could all factor in to collectively provide solid production from that position. At the TE position, Ben Watson has been a habitual teaser with his fantasy potential and enticing speed- remember he ran a high 4.3/low 4.4 forty coming out of Georgia! Still, a new offensive coordinator could mean a fresh start for the under performing tight end- but color me skeptical. All in all, a healthy Brady, Moss and Welker makes this a top-5 offense. If they can mix in a competent run game and maybe some production from the tight end position... well, lets just say there is a good chance Moss may be making his first trip to Disneyworld at the end of the season.
Best BetTom Brady- Despite the season ending injury- in addition to concerns about a loss of confidence in the pocket- Brady still represents the best option for fantasy glory on this team. Do I believe he will immediately return to form circa 2007 and his 50 TD performance... not necessarily. But a healthy Brady has that upside and he should be a safe bet to pass for 4,000+ yards and 30+ TD's- barring injury of course.
Wes Welker- Since the patriots are rife with fantasy options, I am going to give you two best bets. Without a doubt, Brady and Moss hold higher fantasy potential, than Welker. However, both still have questions coming into the season which give pause to the idea that either of them are a sure thing. Welker, on the other hand, is the x-factor that keeps this offense going. He showed last year that he can consistently perform with another QB at the helm; proving he is not merely a pesky-but-average receiver who represents the primary benefactor of Brady's "golden arm". Seriously, 111 catches for 1,165 yards and 3 touchdowns while adjusting to a new quarterback- who hadn't started a regular season NFL or College game before last season- is something to be impressed by. The only thing that separated Welker's 2007 performance from his 2008 performance was a difference of 8 TD's in 2007 compared to 3 TD's in 2008. Expect the touchdowns to hover around 7-8 in 2009 because Brady, like no other QB, is lights-out in the red-zone and tends to not rely on one WR- i.e. Moss- in those situations. Draft Welker with confidence and realize that his steady presence, in your fantasy lineup, will allow you to take more chances on high risk/high reward receivers in the later rounds.
Buyer Beware
Randy Moss- With the return of Brady he should- and I stress should- return to fantasy dominance. However, this is not a certainty- given age and his singular function as a WR. Look, Moss' game is predicated on speed and leaping ability; two elements that significantly erode with age. He probably has two more good years before an inevitable regression. However, as we have seen with many other athletes, when age catches up- it catches up fast and unexpectedly- which leaves the fantasy player in the predicament of employing a crystal ball approach in determining whether they should try to squeeze another great year out of Moss or start to look at drafting some of the up-and-comer's like Roddy White and Greg Jennings. If you are not in a Keeper league, I say draft Moss with confidence because odds are he's in for another big year. However, if you are in a keeper league the decision to draft Moss- versus say Roddy White- should be based on whether your team is capable of winning it all this year, or whether you are building a team to compete next year or the year after that.
Sleeper
Sammy Morris- I never thought I would say this- but I am going to let Sammy Morris' 2008 numbers speak for itself. Last year, on 156 attempts, Morris rushed for 727 yards and 7 touchdowns for, get this, a 4.7 yard average per carry. Those are all-around solid numbers- given his limited touches- and if he is entrusted with 200+ carries this year- he could be in-line to reach the 1,000 mark for the first time in his career, in addition to scoring 7-10 TD's. I know, I know; Brady's back and they are going to be running a lot of 5 receiver sets and what not. However, Maroney's done- believe me, I watched him closely last night and he was severely underwhelming. As well, I am sure the team learned from 2007 that some semblance of a running game is vital come playoff time. In the end, Morris will have value this season and the fact that almost no one else in your league will know this, gives you an opportunity to grab a possible starting running back in the later rounds.
