MNF Week 1 Handicapping

That's the way to start off the season, with a 3-0 Sunday sweep and +25units of Profit. We quickly erased the 0-2(-11dime) Thursday start.

Let's take a look at yesterday's action:
Min (-4) covers at Cleveland
--You have to give Cleveland credit, they made you sweat until the 3rd quarter. The fact is Cleveland is a bad football team. Their defense is going to get abused all season, and Brady Quinn is going to take a while to develop into a formidable quarterback. The Vikings are going to be one of the more overrated teams this year solely b/c of Brett Favre. Personally, I think Brett is beyond washed up, and against good defenses the Vikings will suffer. If you find a team that can stop the run, and has a formidable offense--New York G, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Tennessee, and San Diego to name a few--Minnesota won't be able to compete with. Watch for inflated Vikings lines.

Baltimore (-12.5) covers vs. Kansas City
--Sometimes its better to be lucky than good, this time was a case of being lucky AND good. This was a nice break, to get these last second scores that actually go in your favor. The Chiefs had no business being in that game, The Ravens more than doubled their yards and TOP. The Ravens special teams blew it--missed FG and blocked punt for a KC TD. The Ravens set a franchise record 501 yards of offense, led by a surprising 43 pass attempts from Joe Flacco. That shouldn't have been surprising if your paying attention. This Ravens offense will be good this year and efficient. The running game is strong--Ray Rice and McGahee look better-- and they leave themselves manageable 3rd downs. I expect Flacco to throw it 30-35times a game. The Chiefs front 7 is better than expected, and if they could find a running game--this won't be a terrible football team. Todd Haley will make this a dangerous team come November, December.

6pt teaser (Ind + Atl) cover.
--Why tease?
It's not a method I use often--because if both teams cover--the odds are like 70% you would have won both games at their original spreads.

I was worried about the Colts being in a dogfight, but I was confident in the Colts to win their home opener. Jacksonville was missing several pieces in their starting defense, and didn't think they had the outside weapons to beat the Colts. I expect the Colts to focus on stopping MJD, but teams that have better QB play and playmakers at WR/TE can be a big matchup problem for the Colts. The Colts are an interesting team to me, I'm not as high on them as most, but; I'm not high on that whole division.

Tonights Play
--Biggest Play of the Season
15 dimes New England Patriots -10.5

Season
3-2 (+14 dimes)

Handicapping the NFC

Opening kickoff is a week away, and it's now time to unveil who I am betting on to become NFC Champions this season.

What I look for is not who I think is the best team in the NFC (Philadelphia), but rather teams that have a realistic shot at winning the NFC and offer value at their price. I'll use the New England Patriots as an example. Yes, Tom Brady looks to be back 100% and New England could return to their status ontop of the NFL. But, am I going to place a bet on them to win the AFC at 2-1? Hell no. New England is good, great team, but they aren't flawless by any means. Their secondary leaves a lot to be desired, as well as the running game. Tom Brady sure has taken some hits this preseason, that line clearly isn't bulletproof. Can the Patriots win the AFC? Absolutely. Are they good value at 2-1? Absolutely not.

Our goal is to find the best values, and get one of our teams in their respective conference championship games. As long as one of them makes it, your guaranteed money. If you have one team in, you bet against them in the game, and no matter the outcome, your making money.

Here's a look at my picks for the NFC (odds courtesy of BoDog.com):

Atlanta Falcons: 12/1

Michael Vick and Bobby Petrino did a lot to seemingly destroy this franchise, which appeared it was in a long rebuilding periond. Enter Mike Smith and Matt Ryan. Nobody, probably including the Falcons, expected the results they delivered last season. Matt Ryan, last seasons Rookie of the Year, brought the Falcons to an impressive 11-5 season and wild-card berth. They drew the eventual NFC Champion, Arizona Cardinals, and Ryan picked the wrong game to act like a rookie. 3 turnovers later, Arizona danced to a 30-24 victory.

I'm not placing this bet, solely because I think Matt Ryan is poised to make even bigger strides this year. Their running game, led by Michael Turner, will be one of the elites in the NFL. Now, not only does Ryan have Roddy White to throw the ball to, the Falcons signed veteran and future Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez to round out what's to be a prolific offense.

The defense needed upgrades, as it finished 22nd in the NFL last season. Their key loss was Dominique Foxworth to Baltimore. However, the Falcons spent all but 1 draft pick on the defensive side of the football. 1st round pick, Peria Jerry, will become an immediate starter at DT to form a solid defensive line with John Abraham. The Falcons lack experience in their "back-7" but they don't lack speed. This is a young and fast defense, that could skate to a division title through the offense. The Colts have proven you don't need a great defense to win championships. These Falcons are hungry after a disappointing playoff loss last year, and offer very good value at 12-1.

Green Bay Packers- 9/1

I'm a full-fledged believer in Aaron Rodgers. This Packers team has impressed me over the course of the preseason. I love the offense. The line is solid, Ryan Grant looks poised to return to 2007 form, and Lee/Finley is a nice TE combination. The strength of this team is the passing game. The receiving corps is deep: Jennings, Driver, Nelson, and Jones.

Everyone knows about the offense, what about the Big-D. Well, Mike McCarthy completely renovated his Defensive staff, and brings Dom Capers to run the defense this year. The personnel in Green Bay is good, and better suited for the 3-4 defense Capers is bringing in. AJ Hawk will no longer be exposed in the passing game, and can focus on getting after the QB, which Green Bay will do well this year with the likes of Aaron Kampman and BJ Raji. Green Bay struggled against the run, but LB Nick Barnett has a clean bill of health and is ready to contribute.

I'm not buying the hype of Brett Favre and Jay Cutler into the NFC North. My feeling is the Packers and Vikings will battle it out for NFC North supremacy, but; in a playoff game, after watching last season, would you prefer Aaron Rodgers or Brett Favre?

Tomorrow, look for my AFC Futures Handicapping Analysis.